Questions on Electoral Reform

It seems like our categories are being divided into two main themes, so feel free to contribute towards the questions on Electoral Reform in this thread.

I'm just adding the question suggestions I already posted in our main thread to this thread to keep it organized!

For BC electoral reform questions, I liked what Markus said about finding a theory for why STV didn’t pass – perhaps finding out whether it was STV that BC residents didn’t like or if it was the idea electoral reform they didn't like. A lot of debate ensued post-referendum on whether or not BC residents were briefed properly on the complexities of STV. We could start by asking BC residents: 1) Did you vote in the 2008 referendum to change BC’s electoral system from FPTP to STV? 2) Do you agree with the following statement: Electoral reform in BC is necessary. 3) Do you agree with the following statement: BC residents were not given sufficient information on and explanation of the STV system prior to the 2008 referendum. 4) On a scale one (no understanding) through five (full understanding), rank your understanding of the Single Transferable Voting system.

Well to weigh in on this, I think we're getting down to a good discrimination. I'm actually in favour of the question Deanie proposed early on in discussion, partly because of its clear wording, and also because of it's nice lack of bias (which is something hard to avoid when you're looking for causal links, I've found.) The question was this: "Which of the following electoral systems do you think is the most fair?" - First Past the Post (FPTP - Current System) - Alternative Vote - Proportional Representation - Single Transferable Vote (STV) - Mixed Member Plurality (MMP) - Don't Know

Now I've already mentioned some of what is good about this question, let me make the case some more. The spectrum of choices means that people well-versed in electoral systems will be able to express themselves fairly clearly when it comes to answering the concern of "Is it just the STV reform that people weren't interested in?" Next, we can also gauge the feelings towards the existing electoral system, in the case where most people pick FPTP. I've labelled it as the current electoral system in order to help people who just have no clue what any of these (including FPTP) mean. Third, if we get a significant vote in the "Don't Know" category, this will give us a pretty solid result that people are dissatisfied with the existing system enough not to find it fair, but not informed enough about alternatives to make lasting change. I'm also looking forward to how these conclusions pair up with different socioeconomic and party affiliated respondents.

So these two questions form what I think offers a healthy amount of info on BC's electoral reform. "How did you vote in the 2008 referendum on changing our First Past the Post electoral system to Single Transferable Vote?" - Yes - No - Did Not Vote

Markus, I think we should be a little more cautious when applauding our "lack of bias":

"Well to weigh in on this, I think we're getting down to a good discrimination. I'm actually in favour of the question Deanie proposed early on in discussion, partly because of its clear wording, and also because of it's nice lack of bias (which is something hard to avoid when you're looking for causal links, I've found.) The question was this: "Which of the following electoral systems do you think is the most fair?" - First Past the Post (FPTP - Current System) - Alternative Vote - Proportional Representation - Single Transferable Vote (STV) - Mixed Member Plurality (MMP) - Don't Know"' I feel this question is pretty loaded.

- Firstly, We obviously bias the results of our poll towards the electoral systems we suggest. What if I think the fairest type of electoral system is a specific type of preferential voting (ranked pairs for example), Party list proportional, a parallel vote etc...? The question will systematically favor the listed responses and at the expense of the multitude of unlisted electoral systems.

-Secondly, we are asking what electoral system is most "fair". Is this to be understood as what electoral system is best? I may think an electoral system is not the most fair, but otherwise desirable for some other attribute. For instance, FPTP might be "unfair" to smaller political parties, but may still be the best electoral system because it creates effective governments by manufacturing majorities. If we assume the best electoral system must be the "fairest" we bias our survey against the other possible merits of electoral systems.

-Thirdly, our selection of answers might effectively "split the vote" of respondents to make an option less popular by splitting its advocates into two smaller subgroups. Consider the respondent to the proposed question who believes STV to be the fairest system because it achieves proportional representation- do they select the "STV" response or the "proportional representation response"?

Some of these criticisms may be beyond the scope of our current poll given the limits we are working under, but I still think we must be aware of these problems to minimize them. The question might be a good one despite the deficiencies I just mentioned, but we must at least be aware of them.

The questions I've seen on surveys (and last semester's survey) are pretty biased. Some of them are supposed to be to get people emotional about a topic which leads to them answering less logically and more on a personal basis. I don't know many people who get emotional of electoral reform (I, for one, do but that's just me) so I don't feel this bias would hinder our research/conclusion (whatever that may be).

Question often use ambiguous terms so that the person being surveyed can interpret a question/term whichever way he/she wants to. In this week's tutorial, some of the questions just ask "how much of taxes does government waste" and "how many in government are crooked". What do the terms 'waste' and 'crooked' mean? It would have different meanings for every person and maybe that is the intention.

I just feel the wording of questions is sometimes purposely vague (that will be my defense for my question, but I don't mind changes to it).

Riley you raise some really good points, and I think the wording would have to be revised somewhat in consideration of your concerns. Rather than asking which is most FAIR, why not ask people which they think is BEST?

This would allow personal preference to weigh much more heavily, as people who see justice as fairness would be distinguished from people who look for electoral systems to produce effective governments.

In response to the limited set from our options, I think we're alright. The two other options you provided I am entirely unfamiliar with, so I wouldn't expect a significant proportion of respondents to feel alienated by our selection. Removing proportional representation I'm not certain about. You're right that it would divide people who may support a subset of proportional voting, which is why I might be inclined to remove it, but at the same time a purely proportional system is very different than the STV option.

Splitting the vote could end up being exactly the response we want. I offered the possibility that one reason why the STV DIDN'T pass was because of those alternate systems, STV was less preferable to many than one of the other options. It is possible that we could witness exactly the same distribution of STV preference in our question as in the referendum, with most of the split coming from people who voted in favour of keeping the current system.

I'm in favour of keeping Proportional Representation. Like Markus just said, even if people select it (without maybe even realizing that STV and MMP are both PR systems), it still tells us what we were interested in earlier: did people not want an electoral reform, or not want STV? As I've always thought since the referendum, just because British Columbians voted down STV doesn't necessarily mean that British Columbians don't want any electoral reform whatsoever.

Maybe, under the FPTP option, we could also include that it is 'Single Member Plurality'?

Markus, I think the hypothesis that "STV did not pass because a significant portion of voters favoured an alternative electoral reform" is a great hypothesis for our poll to test. Similar suggestions were made below and this would be a good direction to head in.

"Splitting the vote could end up being exactly the response we want. I offered the possibility that one reason why the STV DIDN'T pass was because of those alternate systems, STV was less preferable to many than one of the other options. It is possible that we could witness exactly the same distribution of STV preference in our question as in the referendum, with most of the split coming from people who voted in favour of keeping the current system."

I disagree with you here. Some of the answers to the proposed questions are electoral systems, while "proportional representation" is a quality of an electoral system. I'm not sure what we would gain from asking this question, as any result could be explained in multiple ways :

Consider if the results of the proposed question were as follows: 80% of respondents think proportional representation is 'best', 20% think STV is "best". Perhaps 100% of people favour STV, 80% because it is proportionally representative and 20% because of some other feature. Or maybe 80% favour another type of electoral system they think is proportional and only 20% think STV is "best". Analysis of the proposed question is impossible and can neither support or refute our hypothesis.

To adress the hypothesis that "STV did not pass because a significant portion of voters favoured an alternative electoral reform" I suggest these questions:

Q1) How Satisfied with the Current Electoral System in British Columbia 1) Very Satisfied 2) Somewhat Satisfied 3) Unsatisfied 4) Very Unsatisfied

Q2) Are you in favor of Electoral reform in BC? 1) Yes 2) No 3)Not sure

Q3) In addition to the 2009 provincial election, British Columbia had a referendum regarding the adoption of a new electoral system: Single Transferable Vote (STV). How did you vote in the 2009 electoral reform referendum? 1) I voted Yes to Single Transferable Vote (STV) 2) I voted No to Single Transferable Vote (STV) 3) I did not vote in the 2009 electoral referendum 4) I don't remember

Q4) Has your attitude on electoral reform changed between now and the 2009 referendum? 1) Yes 2) No

One problem is the historical element to our hypothesis- were trying to identify what might have caused an event in 2009 by a poll done in 2011. The last question is meant to try and cope with this issue- If we see that most peoples attitudes have changed we would likely need a different approach to prove our hypothesis. Still I feel Q4 does not adequately deal with the historical problem (It might be that a poll is not the best tool for this hypotheses).