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Course:CONS200/2025WT2/The Vulnerability of Hydropower to Climate Change

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Introduction to Hydropower and Climate Change

The need for a reliable and sustainable source of renewable energy has been prevalent for years. Hydropower is one of the most effective solutions for this need; it is, however, at risk due to the growing climate crisis. Hydropower is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and this is becoming increasingly apparent. With shifting precipitation matters and rising temperatures, extreme weather events have become more frequent and have created a more unpredictable environment where hydropower production becomes disrupted. this greatly impacts its long-term reliability, viability, and sustainability. Compounded by environmental degradation and economic and social pressures, these challenges continue to worsen and become more difficult to overcome. It is important to understand the multifaceted issues caused by climate change that face hydropower in order to combat it. Understanding global studies and exposing issues such as glacial melt and altered river flows can help achieve this. This is also important to determining the reasons for current remedial actions as well as developing future ones that can be more effective.

The History of Hydropower

What is Hydropower

Feitsui Dam and Hydropower Plant

To begin with, hydroelectric power is a renewable energy source that generates electricity by harnessing the kinetic energy of flowing water, also known as hydropower. Hydropower typically involves dams or reservoirs that control the flow of water, which can be channeled through turbines that produce electricity. Hydropower has been used since the late 19th century and is the most widely used renewable energy source worldwide. It accounts for around 16% of the world's electricity production, as the International Energy Agency estimated in 2020. It is one of the most reliable and consistent energy supplies with low operational costs and minimal gas pollution emissions compared to fossil fuels. Despite being the most reliable source of renewable energy available, the environmental and social impact of its mass production is widely debated, and its sustainability is questionable. The output of hydropower is a large driver of ecosystem degradation and the displacement of communities. However, hydropower is still one of the best options for renewable energy and is at least the comparatively most sustainable source of energy out there.

Why Hydropower

Hydropower and Dams are the chosen energy producers and infrastructure in many places around the globe. Hydropower is seen as a clean energy source. As the need to reduce greenhouse gasses continues to grow, all aspects of energy production and consumption need to be efficient [1]. Hydropower projects have very few greenhouse gas emissions compared to other large-scale energy options [1]. These developments also do not pollute the water used, as they take advantage of the movement of water instead of any substances that might contaminate it. This allows for the water to continue to be used for other functions. The water used in hydropower generation is still clean enough to be used for consumption, agriculture and other uses [1]. This is also true for water in precipitation, as hydropower does not produce acid rain or any atmospheric pollution[1].

As hydropower projects most commonly are built with dams, many of the benefits come from the dam itself. Benefits include land management, flood control, water storage for irrigation and agriculture, recreation, and resource management [2]. They are also used in certain areas prone to droughts and floods. Dams can be used to store excess water during rainy seasons and release water during dry seasons, mitigating floods and droughts during their respective season[1].

Issue, Impact, Influencing Factors

Issues Brought on by Climate Change

Austin Dam - Flood wreck

The speed of the impact of climate change has been alarming. Virtually every nation around the world is struggling to adapt to a new normal of change. Increasing global average temperatures may sound like it will only get hotter, but that way is the case. However, more likely, it will make most places wetter. Warmer air is able to take up more moisture from oceans. This increased water-holding capacity of the air has a direct impact on global precipitation patterns. These changes manifest themselves as extremes. Extreme Rain. Extreme floods. Extreme Hail. Extreme Heat[3]. Since the 70s, these extremes have become more noticeable. The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is used in Hydropower to design water-intensive infrastructure. Has increased globally with various exceptions, such as in Africa. Many regions in the northern hemisphere and South America show a significant increase in precipitation [3].

There are countless nations that have adopted Hydropower as a source of renewable electricity. The ones most impacted by climate change are the ones least equipped to face it. Countries facing issues in other sectors, such as political turmoil and economic insecurity, are being impacted particularly hard by the fundamental changes to our water system. The on our weather system caused by a spike in global average temperatures has put a large strain on infrastructure at both ends of the extremes. The global shift in global precipitation has impacted many countries that are reliant on hydropower. Droughts are on one end of the precipitation extreme; they are defined as extended periods of little to no precipitation. In areas experiencing drought, water can be scarce and heavily controlled. Hydropower is often subject to heavy control by the government to secure Necessary water resources for critical Sectors Such as food and drinking water [4]. Floods occupy the opposite end of the precipitation extreme, usually due to heavy rainfall or rapid snowmelt. Floods pose a much larger risk to infrastructure [5].

Glacial lake outburst flood at Pakistan’s Shishpar glacier

Rising temperatures globally may also have effects on annual snowmelt. Many hydro dams rely on the Gradual Melting of Snow for the continual use of Hydropower throughout the year. In the Himalayas, Hydropower is more reliant on glacial meltwater. Both of these are being impacted by rising temperatures. The earlier snowmelt may lead to less production later on in the year [6].

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) are the most concerning of these climate-related issues. This event occurs when increased glacial outflows from mountain glaciers expand a glacial lake to the point of breaching its basin. This can lead to a very rapid movement of water downstream. Since the 90s, GLOFs have increased in frequency at an alarming rate. GLFOs are one of the most destructive of these climate-related events. The sudden flow of water arriving without warning can lead to downstream communities being wiped out with no warning or even the breaching of a hydroelectric dam. This issue will only increase in frequency and severity as climate change continues [7].

Impact of Issues

Paraná River reaches lowest November level in 25 years

Extended droughts in Brazil have major effects on hydropower output, accounting for 64% of the country's electricity consumption[4]. Beyond Hydropower, an increase in droughts over the past 10 years has had major socioeconomic and environmental impacts on the country. Droughts have a variety of impacts on power generation, as their unpredictable nature makes it difficult to plan for. Droughts also impact other sectors like food and water supply.  A particularly bad Drought in southeastern Brazil in 2014 saw a 40% reduction in generation in 2014 and an 80% reduction in December 2015 [8]. The droughts in Brazil have caused the Paraná River, accounting for ⅖ of the power generation in the area, to see 91-year lows. Fossil fuel generation has increased to help meet the demand if Hydropower fails to do so[4].

Floods are known to be far more damaging to infrastructure. They pose a larger threat to populations and agricultural production. The qualities of Hydropower allow for a high level of control over the availability of water downstream. The Mekong River is an extremely culturally and economically important river in southeast Asia. Flowing through 6 countries, it brings fresh water to countless communities and industries along its path. Suffering from yearly floods that continue to increase in severity and strength. The reservoirs along the river account for 23% of the mean annual stream flow. These relatively new dams can reduce the risks associated with higher annual rainfall by letting water out of the reservoir at specific times. Electricity production must be reduced, and the water head must be lowered to allow for the influx of additional floodwater [9].

Glacial lake outburst floods pose an existential threat to countless communities around the world. The breaching of natural dams can send unimaginable amounts of water downhill. These glacial lake outbursts are not well understood and are directly linked to climate change. Their prevalence in the Himalayas has only increased since the turn of the century. Their threat to Hydropower is overloading the reservoirs extremely rapidly. Potentially causing damage to the dam. The main risk associated with these events is the damage to surrounding communities that depend on these dams. Catastrophic events such as GLFOs can greatly decrease development in the area, reversing the benefits caused by the dam in the first place[10].

Current remedial actions

Current Efforts

There has been much development in hydropower projects around the world in recent decades. In the USA's past, Franklin D. Roosevelt's policies from The New Deal in the 1930s led to hydropower accounting for 40% of the United States' electrical use. [2] Since then, there has been a steady decline in reliance on hydropower in the US, falling to 6.1% of electrical use as of 2018 and being replaced by both renewable and non-renewable alternative energy sources [2]. Most of the dams built in Roosevelt's era were reaching the end of their useful lifespan, meaning they were too expensive to repair, didn't serve their original purpose, or had negative social and environmental externalities. New development is not making up for the loss, with more than 60 dams a year being removed from the US [2].

Oroville dam spillway

Climate change plays a role in this by exacerbating the destruction of older dams. Climate change leading to extreme weather can cause dam failures. The US has decided to focus on dam removal rather than construction to avoid potential catastrophes [2]. In 1994, heavy rains from a tropical storm caused 130 dams in Georgia to fail [2]. More heavy rains in California in 2016 led the Oroville Dam spillway to begin to fail, leading to 190,000 people needing to be evacuated from their homes. The Teton Dam in Idaho failed in 1976, resulting in the loss of over 2 billion dollars [2]. As Climate Change enhances extreme weather events, dams continue to be more prone to failures. When designing dams, engineers design reservoirs to incorporate 100-year sediment storage pools, but most of the time, they assumed sediment transport rates were similar to those when they were built. Their calculations fail to include the increase of sediment transport to reservoirs from extreme weather that has been enhanced by climate change [2]. The USA has realized the potential risks of dams in a climate with more extreme weather events and has decided to stray away from construction dams and, in turn, hydropower projects.

Although the USA has decided to stray away from dams and hydropower, there are also people looking into how to continue using them in a future climate change-affected world. In Nepal, researchers have been studying potential climate change effects on their dams and have simulated possible remedies to mitigate the damage from warming temperatures. They predicted climate change would continue to warm global temperatures and that this would lead to a 0.5-13% decrease in the production of hydropower energy in the next 60 years due to changes in precipitation patterns [11]. After doing their simulations, they concluded that changes to the rule curves of the dams could mitigate these detriments [11]. Rule curves are restrictions on the maximum and minimum levels water can be at in a reservoir [12]. The maximum is to prevent overflowing and flooding during wet seasons, and the minimum is to ensure enough water is stored for use and release during dry seasons [12]. The researchers in Nepal concluded that alterations to these rule curves would instead allow for less of a decrease in energy production [11]. Increasing the height of the dam, finding ways to reduce the amount of sediment in the dam, and sealing the surface of the reservoir to reduce evaporation are all other solutions they settled on to mitigate the effect that climate change has on the production of hydropower [11].

The path forward

Economic/financial impacts

Where the river ends, dried up river bed from drought

Urgent action is needed as climate change accelerates, causing severe disruptions at both global and regional levels—ranging from environmental stress to potential ecosystem collapse. One striking example is the role of hydropower systems, which, despite being considered a renewable energy source, can contribute to environmental degradation. In regions like the Amazon, droughts and glacial melt have been worsened by extreme heat events, with hydropower operations further straining water resources and disrupting ecosystems.

Scientists warn that excessive water usage for hydropower, the depletion of vital water sources, and land reclamation are intensifying the climate crisis. These practices not only release greenhouse gases (GHGs) but also create a feedback loop of ongoing environmental degradation. Without intervention, continued reliance on hydropower without sustainable practices will accelerate climate change and threaten water security worldwide.

Indigenous women from Peru sailing in a reed boat

Environmental degradation caused by hydropower also jeopardizes people’s rights, particularly those of Indigenous communities. As highlighted in this course through the documentary Karuara, Indigenous peoples across different regions face growing threats to their fundamental rights, especially their connection to water. Water is essential not only for survival but also for passing down traditional knowledge, maintaining spiritual connections, and preserving ties to unceded lands. The continued exploitation of water resources—especially through unsustainable hydropower projects—places these rights at risk, further marginalizing Indigenous communities and disrupting their cultural and ecological heritage.

In the context of the case study of the Kulekhani Hydropower Project (KHP) in Nepal, climate change presents significant environmental challenges, including alterations in hydrological patterns, rising temperatures, and changing precipitation. Addressing these issues is crucial for both environmental sustainability and the viability of hydropower generation in the region. For example, climate change is projected to lead to erratic precipitation, with increased dry season flow and reduced wet season availability [11]. Such changes can disrupt the natural ecosystem balance, affect aquatic habitats, and threaten biodiversity.

Implementing adaptive measures such as modifying reservoir operating rules can ensure a more stable water supply and optimal hydropower generation, thereby minimizing environmental stress. This can help maintain ecological balance within river systems by allowing for more predictable flow patterns [11]. Furthermore, as a renewable energy source, improving the resilience of hydropower plants reduces dependence on fossil fuels. This transition positively impacts air quality and helps mitigate the country's overall greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to global climate change mitigation efforts.

Environmental Impacts

Implementing adaptation strategies, while beneficial in the long term, will require substantial upfront investment. This may strain government budgets or necessitate loans or foreign investment, temporarily impacting national debt levels. However, the long-term economic benefits are significant. Enhancing the resilience of hydropower generation can ensure a stable electricity supply—vital for industrial growth, business expansion, and residential use—all of which contribute to GDP growth [11].

Laxmanghat Dam Laxmanghat Kapilbastu Lumbini Zone Nepal Rajesh Dhungana

In Nepal, for example, a stable electricity supply from resilient hydropower systems can drive economic development. A reliable energy infrastructure also attracts foreign direct investment into various sectors, fostering economic diversification. Increased industrial activity can generate higher tax revenues, enabling further public investment in infrastructure and services [11].

Analysis and Evaluation

The mitigation strategies presented in the Nepal case study, such as diversification of energy sources, have both pros and cons. On the positive side, they can reduce reliance on a single energy source, enhance energy security, increase resilience to climate variability, and provide more stable energy throughout the year.

However, the initial investment costs may be high for developing alternative energy infrastructure. This is especially challenging for a developing country like Nepal, which operates under tight budget constraints and relies heavily on foreign aid or loans for financial projects.

In addition, advanced water management practices—another mitigation strategy—may require high operational costs associated with technology and maintenance, which poses further difficulties. The availability and accuracy of data are also critical; any deficiencies could impair effective management decisions.

Overall, while the mitigation strategies for Kulekhani Hydropower Project offer significant benefits, they also present challenges that require careful consideration and strategic planning.

Conclusion

Hydropower faces many changes in the current state of climate change. From extreme droughts in Brazil to glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas, the crisis greatly impacts and threatens vulnerable communities. Despite this, hydropower continues to be one of the most efficient and low-emission energy sources available to us. Unfortunately, it is clear that the sustainability hydropower is in danger due to climate change. There is now an urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Case studies from Nepal show that by modifying dam operations, diversifying energy sources and improving water management, we can successfully manage these risks in a way that makes an impact. These adaptations require significant funds and are extremely costly in terms of both resources and labour. They require a strong commitment to environmental and social collaboration, ensuring that all community's needs are understood and incorporated into decision-making. Balancing economic and environmental goals contributes greatly to the continued development of hydropower. It is important for international leaders and communities to commit to prioritizing relicense and adaptability to ensure that hydropower remains a sustainable energy source and the cornerstone of renewable energy.

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Yksel, I. (2009). "Dams and hydropower for sustainable development". Energy Sources. Part B, Economics, Planning and Policy. 4(1): 100–110.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Moran, E. F.; Lopez, M. C.; Moore, N.; Müller, N.; Hyndman, D. W. (2018). "Sustainable hydropower in the 21st century". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS. 115(47): 11891–11898.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Sarkar, S.; Maity, R. (June 2, 2021). "Global climate shift in 1970s causes a significant worldwide increase in precipitation extremes". Scientific Reports. 11.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Getirana, A.; Libonati, R.; Cataldi, M. (December 8, 2021). "Brazil is in water crisis — it needs a drought plan". Nature.
  5. ↑ Adhikari, T. R.; Baniya, B.; Tang, Q.; Talchabhadel, R. (September 2023). "Evaluation of post extreme floods in high mountain region: A case study of the Melamchi flood 2021 ​at the Koshi River Basin in Nepal". Natural Hazards Research. 3(3): 437–446. zero width space character in |title= at position 100 (help)
  6. ↑ Wasti, A.; Ray, P.; Wi, S.; Folch, C. (January 10, 2022). "Climate change and the hydropower sector: A global review". Wires Climate Change. 13(2).
  7. ↑ Taylor, C.; Robinson, T.; Dunning, S.; Carr, R.; Westoby, M. (February 7, 2023). "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally". Nature Communications. 14.
  8. ↑ Cuartas, L. A.; Martins, A. P.; Alves, J. A.; Pinto, L. M. (February 16, 2022). "Recent Hydrological Droughts in Brazil and Their Impact on Hydropower Generation". Water. 14(4): 601.
  9. ↑ Yun, X.; Tang, Q.; Sun, S.; Wang, J. (September 30, 2021). "Reducing Climate Change Induced Flood at the Cost of Hydropower in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin". Geophysical Research Letters. 48(20).
  10. ↑ Nie, Y.; Deng, Q.; Pritchard, H.; Carrivick, J.; Ahmed, F. (July 15, 2023). "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten Asia's infrastructure". Science Bulletin. 63(13): 1361–1365.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 Shrestha, A.; Shrestha, S.; Tingsanchali, T.; Budhathoki, A.; Ninsawat, S. (2021). "Adapting hydropower production to climate change: A case study of Kulekhani hydropower project in nepal". Journal of Cleaner Production. 279.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Howard, C. D. D. (1999). "Death to rule curves". Water Resources Planning and Management Conference '99: 1–5.

[1][2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20]

  1. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named :11
  2. ↑ Adam, J. C.; Hamlet, A. F; Lettenmaier, D. P.; de Jong, C; Essery, R.; Lawler, D. M. (2009). "Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the twenty-first century". Hydrological Processes. 23(7): 962–972.
  3. ↑ Adhikari, T. R.; Baniya, B.; Tang, Q.; Talchabhadel, R. (September 2023). "Evaluation of post extreme floods in high mountain region: A case study of the Melamchi flood 2021 ​at the Koshi River Basin in Nepal". Natural Hazards Research. 3(3): 437–446. zero width space character in |title= at position 100 (help)
  4. ↑ Devkota, N.; Lamichhane, S.; Bhattarai, P. K. (2025). "Confronting uncertainty: The future of hydropower in the Himalayan region amidst climate ambiguity". Energy for Sustainable Development. 85.
  5. ↑ Gerten, D.; Hoff, H.; Rockström, J.; Jägermeyr, J.; Kummu, M.; Pastor, A. V. (2013). "Towards a revised planetary boundary for consumptive freshwater use: Role of environmental flow requirements". Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. 5(6): 551–558.
  6. ↑ Cuartas, L. A.; Martins, A. P.; Alves, J. A.; Pinto, L. M. (February 16, 2022). "Recent Hydrological Droughts in Brazil and Their Impact on Hydropower Generation". Water. 14(4): 601.
  7. ↑ Getirana, A.; Libonati, R.; Cataldi, M. (December 8, 2021). "Brazil is in water crisis — it needs a drought plan". Nature.
  8. ↑ Howard, C. D. D. (1999). "Death to rule curves". Water Resources Planning and Management Conference '99: 1–5.
  9. ↑ Malede, D. A.; Alamirew, T.; Andualem, T. G. (2023). "Integrated and individual impacts of land use land cover and climate changes on hydrological flows over Birr River watershed, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia". Water. 15(1): 166.
  10. ↑ Moran, E. F.; Lopez, M. C.; Moore, N.; Müller, N.; Hyndman, D. W. (2018). "Sustainable hydropower in the 21st century". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS. 115(47): 11891–11898.
  11. ↑ Rehana, S.; Sireesha Naidu, G. (2021). "Development of hydro-meteorological drought index under climate change: Semi-arid river basin of peninsular India". Journal of Hydrology. 594.
  12. ↑ Sarkar, S.; Maity, R. (June 2, 2021). "Global climate shift in 1970s causes a significant worldwide increase in precipitation extremes". Scientific Reports. 11.
  13. ↑ Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A.; Bennett, K. (2014). "Impacts of climate change in three hydrologic regimes in British Columbia, Canada". Hydrological Processes. 28(3): 1170–1189.
  14. ↑ Shah, I. A.; Khan, H.; Muhammad, Z.; Ullah, R.; Iqbal, S.; Nafidi, H.; Bourhia, M.; Salamatullah, A. M. (2024). "Evaluation of climate change impact on plants and hydrology". Frontiers in Environmental Science. 12.
  15. ↑ Shrestha, A.; Shrestha, S.; Tingsanchali, T.; Budhathoki, A.; Ninsawat, S. (2021). "Adapting hydropower production to climate change: A case study of Kulekhani hydropower project in nepal". Journal of Cleaner Production. 279.
  16. ↑ Taylor, C.; Robinson, T.; Dunning, S.; Carr, R.; Westoby, M. (February 7, 2023). "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally". Nature Communications. 14.
  17. ↑ Wasti, A.; Ray, P.; Wi, S.; Folch, C. (January 10, 2022). "Climate change and the hydropower sector: A global review". Wires Climate Change. 13(2).
  18. ↑ Yamba, F. D.; Walimwipi, H.; Jain, S.; Zhou, P.; Cuamba, B.; Mzezewa, C. (2011). "Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin". Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 16(6): 617–628.
  19. ↑ Yksel, I. (2009). "Dams and hydropower for sustainable development". Energy Sources. Part B, Economics, Planning and Policy. 4(1): 100–110.
  20. ↑ Yun, X.; Tang, Q.; Sun, S.; Wang, J. (September 30, 2021). "Reducing Climate Change Induced Flood at the Cost of Hydropower in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin". Geophysical Research Letters. 48(20).
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