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Course:CONS200/2025WT2/The effects of wildfires on outmigration in California

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As a result of climate change, the world has seen a significant increase in the frequency of extreme wildfires. California especially is a region that has been greatly impacted by severe wildfires. The damage caused by these fires damage infrastructure and cause health impacts to the people affected. 49% of residents reported being highly impacted by mandatory evacuations, 42% reported being impacted by poor air quality, and 61% reported being high to moderately impacted by power shutoffs.[1] Out-migration, or the process of people permanently leaving an area in order to live somewhere else, can be affected by: an area’s perception as a ‘safe’ or ‘unsafe’ place, the actual severity and frequency of natural disasters, and the distribution and application of resources for disaster recovery.[2] The impacts of wildfires in California, and the perception of the state as a place where wildfires occur, may be impacting outmigration from the area. In recent years, the state has shown a relative increase in out-migration rates compared to the previous decade.[3] We will discuss if and how the mental and physical impacts of wildfires could be related to this increase.

History

The NOAA's GOES-West satellite capture of the August Complex fires and Glass Fire in California's West Coast region, 2020.

California’s ecosystems are historically adapted to wildfire as a disturbance agent. Prior to establishment of the United States of America, fire was utilized as a tool to shape and maintain the landscape. The state of California has monitored wildfire activity since the early twentieth century, revealing patterns of increasing wildfire frequency and severity throughout the state. 19 of the 20 largest fires in the state’s history have occurred in the twenty-first century, and 13 of these 19 have occurred within the last decade (2015-2025).[4]

The state of California has historically used traditional fire suppression techniques within its semi-arid mixed conifer forests. Suppression allows for the accumulation of biomass as fuel beyond natural fire intervals (between 5-20 years), which in turn contributes to the increased risk of severe wildfire for these ecosystems. Long-term fire suppression encourages the development of atypical forest features, such as continuous closed canopies, establishment of shade-tolerant tree species, and buildup of understory fuels.[5]

Recent shifts in climate have increased both the degree and frequency of drought experienced in California's ecosystems beyond historic norms, further contributing to fuel buildup and wildfire risk.

Causes

Wildfires have always been a part of forest ecosystems. Forests frequently experience small fires that cause stand regeneration, where plants at the forest floor are destroyed, adding nutrients to the forest floor and causing new growth that increases biodiversity. These can be caused by weather or climate conditions, as well as by humans using prescribed fires for forest management.[6] However, recent years have seen a sharp increase in occurrence of severe fires.[7] Climate change and human activities are the most highly attributed to this trend.

Climate

In recent years, the climate has become undeniably warmer. In the twenty-first century, global temperatures have risen between 0.6 to 0.7℃.[8] In the United States, the time period from 1960 to 2013 was warmer than periods of comparable length from the past 600 years.[9] This has been especially significant in the Southwest, which tends to be warmer than the rest of the United States.[9]

Temperature can be an important determinant in wildfire occurrence, affecting humidity and fuel sources. With the higher temperatures of recent years, air is able to hold more water, so as total moisture content remains the same, the relative humidity becomes lower. Precipitation has also decreased as a result of this increase in water storage capacity, leading to drought. The Santa Ana winds, hot and cold winds that flow over Southern California, can also contribute to these warming conditions. These winds are attributed to many extreme temperatures across Southern California. Hot winds, which though less severe than cold winds, can contribute to dry conditions that cause wildfires.[10] These conditions cause fuel such as wood debris on the forest floor to lose more moisture. Combined with the preexisting dry conditions, it leads to larger and more frequent wildfires.[11]

Human Activity

While climate plays a part in causing wildfires, the recent increase in wildfires can be highly attributed to human activities. From 1992 to 2012, humans could be connected to 84% of fires across the United States.[12] Human development introduces sources of ignition to the environment, which combined with dry fuels, creates severe wildfires. Proximity to roads and boundaries between wilderness and human developed areas have both been attributed to higher rates of wildfire occurrence.[12]

Current wildfire management practices aim to suppress all forest fires, regardless of severity. There is evidence that fires are actually an important disturbance event for forests that increases biodiversity and resilience.[13] Small fires create vertical and horizontal diversity in forests, allowing for fire resilience as some species are more tolerant of fire than others. This also creates gaps in fuel distribution that deter larger fires from occurring. Without this, forests become homogeneous, and fuel builds up rather than being periodically consumed. This leads to more wildfires at higher severities.[14] This creates a feedback loop where, as fires get more severe, forests are no longer gaining biodiversity through small disturbances. Instead, when all vegetation is destroyed in a large fire, biodiversity is reduced and makes forest ecosystems more vulnerable.[14]

Impacts

Destroyed home and vehicle caused by the Eaton Fire, 2025

Economic Impact

Wildfires have caused a significant amount of economic damage in California. These types of damages include property damage, capital loss, and wage loss. The January 2025 wildfires of Southern California caused significant amounts of financial damage. The fires caused property damages and capital loss that range from 76 billion USD to 131 billion USD.[15] These damages mainly comes from the 16,251 homes, properties, and structures destroyed in the fire.[15] The amount also includes damage to other belongings such as automobiles.

Additionally, business and employees of affected areas suffered an additional 297 million USD in lost wages.[15] The fire is also expected to cause a 0.48% loss in county GDP, leading to an approximate 4.6 billion USD in further economic damage.[15] Wildfires are expected to become more prevalent as climate change worsens. Examples of other devastating fires in California include the Tubbs wildfire of 2018 and the Camp wildfire of 2017.[15] The Tubbs wildfire caused 8.76 billion USD in insurance claims, and the Camp wildfire caused 8.26 billion USD in insurance claims.[15]

Social Impact

Wildfires have had a significant impact on the Californian society. For one, wildfires have lead to higher living costs for the Californian populace. Wildfires have led to higher housing costs, as well as growing insurance premiums.[15] Low-income communities tend to suffer greater consequences from wildfires. These communities tend to lack the savings and adequate insurance needed to recover from the disaster.[16] This is one of the reasons why wildfires can exacerbate homelessness.[16]

Furthermore, low-income communities are also more likely to not have sufficient preventative measures. This makes their properties 29% more likely to be destroyed by wildfires than those that have such measures installed. An example of such preventative measures is roof renewals, with a roof renewal, the risk of a property being destroyed by wildfires can be reduced by up to 27%.[16] As such, while wildfires negatively affect the entire population, it is much worse for low-income communities. Wildfires have also had major health implications for the Californian populace. Smoke from wildfires carries fine, often toxic, particulate matter, which damages the lungs of the inhaler.[17] This can result in a reduction in the ability to expel foreign objects, such as virus and bacteria, from the lungs. Inhaling these particles can also exacerbate existing respiratory diseases, as well as premature mortality.[17]

Environmental Impact

Wildfires can have dire effects on the environment. Wildfires have the potential to heavily damage ecosystems. Examples include polluted water sources, loss of vegetation, endangerment of wildlife, and degraded air quality[18]. Wildfire effects, especially vegetation loss, have been known to be particularly harmful to herbivores (land grazing mammals and insects)[18]. Essentially, the lack of food and resources leads to decreases in the realized niche of the affected species. In severe cases, this can cause decreases in essential ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling and pollination[18].

While the damages done by disturbances do eventually heal, it is important to note that severe disturbances do not always result in an earlier stage of succession. Severe disturbances such as wildfires can exceed the tipping point of ecosystems, leading to a regime shift. A regime shift is when an ecosystem, as a result of a major disturbance, transitions into a different type of ecosystem.

The growing frequency and intensity of wildfires in a major concern. Low-intensity wildfires may not have major environmental effects, but severe wildfires can transition old-growth forests into primary succession[19]. It takes centuries for a primary succession forest to transition into old growth[19]. When severe wildfires become frequent, it not only drastically increases the amount of carbon in the atmosphere but also decreases the habitat range of forest-reliant species. Wildfires in California are projected to grow in both intensity and frequency through 2100[20]. This poses a major threat to species and ecosystems.

Human Mobility

Out-migration

The term out-migration (also written as outmigration or out migration) is used to categorize the number of residents of an area who then leave for another area. Out-migration within the context of wildfires, then, refers only to how wildfires (and their effects) push people away from where they have settled. Out-migration is not to be confused with a decrease to in-migration, which represents the number of people settling an area. Additionally, in-migration is not to be confused with immigration, which refers to settlement within a new country. The sum of in-migration minus out-migration results in the net migration for a region. A positive net migration means more people are settling in a region while a negative number means more people are leaving the region for another. Literature on the effects environmental hazards have on human mobility vary widely and migration driven by the interaction between climatic and non-climatic elements is not entirely transparent.[21][22] However, existing studies agree wildfires do influence out-migration, along with in-migration.[21][23][24] The predicted and observed severity of wildfires has continued to grow in recent decades at the same time as the populations of high-risk regions have increased[21] with an estimate of 1.2 million people displaced by wildfires globally in 2020, and more affected by smoke which may travel hundreds of miles from its origin.[24]

In a representative survey following the 2020 fire season, 1/12 of the 1,108 California respondents reported they intended to move within 5 years, and this decision was at least moderately impacted by wildfires and smoke.[24] The 2020 California survey reported 73.8% of respondents had prolonged exposure to wildfire smoke, 55.7% had at least one negative experience during the 2020 wildfire season, and 28.4% indicated they know someone who was harmed.[24] It was also found that prior negative outcomes, such as evacuations and losing property, were associated with intentions to migrate, while for those intending to remain prior wildfire experiences negatively affected their residency satisfaction and therefore might influence future out-migration.[24] Another study estimates for each additional 10 days reaching 90 degrees above the average number of extreme heat days, net migrants were reduced by 4 per 10,000 starting population.[23] Counties that experienced a fire had a reduction of 32 net migrants per 10,000 starting population compared to those that did not experience or have a neighbour that experienced a fire in the previous year. Counties neighbouring those that experienced a fire saw a net decrease of 18 migrants per 10,000 starting population when compared to those with no fire (self or near) the previous year. It was also found that a fire disaster declared by FEMA had a net migration impact on par with losing 47 jobs.[23]

Generally, sources agree counties with disaster-level fires or extreme heat in the year prior had increased out-migration and lower in-migration.[21][22][23][24] While human migration patterns are undeniably influenced by wildfires in the short term, particularly in counties that tend to attract migrants for environmental amenities and outdoor recreation,[23] long-term trends are elusive.[21] For example, only 6% of those displaced by the 2017 Sonoma County fires left the county within a year[24] while the deadly 2018 Camp Fire resulted in elevated out-migration for the following two years. It has been argued the extent of wildfire’s influence on population mobility was rare and operated mainly through the destruction of the built environment.[21] Studies of the contiguous United States’ wildfires between 1999 and 2020, showed only extreme wildfires (those destroying 258+ structures) influenced migration patterns.[21] It should be noted that from the same dataset, to reach the top 10% of most destructive fires required 14+ structures be destroyed.[21] The authors of these findings assert most wildfires were less destructive and did not significantly alter in- or out-migration.[21] Also note wildfire control strategies may continue to change and influence mobility indirectly. Wildfire-driven structure loss is on the rise, with a substantial number of the most extreme events being from recent years, which leads to an expectation of increased direct displacement in lieu of other remediation or adaptation efforts.[21]

Persistence

Studies have shown in-situ adaptation serves as a default response to wildfires, whether voluntary or implicit, and migration is seen as an act of last resort when other adaptation is no longer possible.[24] Voluntary non-migration has been described by researcher Nick Tinoco as a collective community response to wildfires through the mobilization of resources for community self-reliance as a climate adaptation measure.[22] People, when faced with increasing environmental risks, have been shown to develop explicit non-migration aspirations.[21] For example, evidence of successful wildfire property defence was shown to inspire community members to plan to resist future evacuation to defend homes.[22] Tinoco also suggests this is a symptom of the erosion of trust in local institutions. It is also noted how community organizations were more likely to consider tangible goals such as volunteer fire brigades over broader climate change strategies.[22] On the other hand, the immobile group shows disparity in response to wildfires, along with other disasters.[22] However, many adaptation opportunities are based on community wealth leading to an “immobility” in disadvantaged areas or areas affected by the destruction of wealth via property.[22] There is a disparity in the response these communities can muster as they do not have the same resources to mobilize, leading to lower feelings of preparedness which has been shown to increase the likelihood of out-migration.[22][24] This, along with wildfires being considered a rare experience in aggregate across the continental United States, may explain the limited impact on net migration from non-extreme wildfires.[21]

Solutions

Fire Management

Current forest management solutions have shown to be ineffective to prevent wildfires. Current practices that aggressively suppress any fire occurrence cause fuel buildup that increases fire severity. Management strategies that allow controlled fires to burn through built up fuel would reduce the severity of wildfires. Indigenous methods traditionally utilized fire to manage forest structures and fuels, however current management practices rarely utilize prescribed fire and continue to heavily favor traditional suppression practices. Fines, detainment, policies, and political attitudes towards fire also prevent the use of prescribed fire as a management strategy[25]. Should California begin to proactively utilize prescribed fire and other management techniques engineered to return its forests to a more native state, it would likely see a change in the frequency and severity of future fires.

Community Policy

It is also important to put efforts towards negating the harmful health effects caused by wildfires. Due to the large impact of smoke on human health[26], smoke suppression tactics should be developed and implemented. Designing buildings to keep smoke outside can create areas of clean air to lower health impacts. It would also be important to create public spaces that give people without the means to evacuate a safe area without the risk of smoke inhalation. Knowing that there are structures in place to protect against wildfires would help people feel safer in their community, decreasing the incentive to migrate[26].

Involving the local community in wildfire mitigation is another option. Community-based management engages citizens in the local community, beyond just the voices of large stakeholders and academics. Studies found that allowing a diverse group of people to participate allowed more perspectives to be heard, and more sets of knowledge on the topic to be contributed[27]. Local engagement was found to be high, suggesting that community based methods are successfully increasing interest in wildfire management. Allowing citizens to become involved with mitigation strategies would help to increase trust and understanding of the effort[27]. Traditional knowledge could also be made better heard through community involvement.

Conclusion

Wildfire has a range of complex impacts on human out-migration from the state of California. Socio-economic factors such as negative experiences of friends and loved ones with fire, prior negative experiences such as evacuations or losing property, and level of infrastructure damage are all associated with out-migration following large fires, either as a direct response or as an influencing factor for future out-migration. As climate change continues to influence frequency of drought conditions and other climate and weather patterns in the state, the frequency and intensity of wildfires is expected to continue to rise and burn with less predictability. Continued use of fire suppression techniques and policy will likely also continue negatively affecting California’s forest structures, perpetuating the extreme buildup of understory fuels which leads to the transition of surface fires into massive crown fires, and of individual fires into fire complexes. Lack of predictability in how, when, and where these wildfires will spark may increase the likelihood of human communities being affected in ways that encourage out-migration. Solutions include improving management strategies, developing infrastructure to accommodate fore wildfire effects, and involving the local community in wildfire management strategies.

References

  1. ↑ Howe, Alexander A; Blomdahl, Erika M; Smith-Eskridge, Ellie; Pinto, Dakoeta R; Brunson, Mark W; Howe, Peter D; Huntly, Nancy J; Klain, Sarah C (April 19, 2024). "Worldviews more than experience predict Californians' support for wildfire risk mitigation policies". Environmental Research Letters.
  2. ↑ Lambrou, Nicole; Kolden, Crystal; Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia (February 15, 2025). "Disaster recovery gentrification in post-wildfire landscapes: The case of Paradise, CA". International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.
  3. ↑ Gabriel, S., Freyd, B., Brand, J., Fultz, N., & Tzen, M. (2005). Recent Trends in California Migration Evidence from the American Community Survey. https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/ucla-california-migration-report.pdf
  4. ↑ "Top 20 Largest California Wildfires"
  5. ↑ Klimaszewski-Patterson, Anna; Dingemans, Theodore; Morgan, Christopher T; Mensing, Scott A (January 15, 2024). "Human influence on late Holocene fire history in a mixed-conifer forest, Sierra National Forest, California". Fire Ecology.
  6. ↑ Mondal, Tamali; Dasgupta, Soumya; Bhatt, Dinesh Chandra; Ramesh, K. (March 20, 2024). "Natural or man-made? Finding the drivers of forest fires within the protected area habitats: a case study from the lower Shivalik Landscape, Western Himalaya". Springer Nature.
  7. ↑ Brown, Patrick T; Hanley, Holt; Mahesh, Ankur; Reed, Colorado; Strenfel, Scott J; Davis, Steven J; Kochanski, Adam K; Clements, Craig B (2023, September 28). "Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California". ProQuest. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ↑ Cayan, Daniel R; Maurer, Edwin P; Dettinger, Michael D; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine (2008, January 26). "Climate change scenarios for the California region". Springer Nature. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Garfin, Gregg; Jardine, Angela; Merideth, Robert; Black, Mary; LeRoy, Sarah (2013). "Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States". Springer Nature.
  10. ↑ Gershunov, Alexander; Guzman, Morales Janin; Hatchett, Benjamin; Guirguis, Kristen; Aguilera, Rosana; Shulgina, Tamara; Abatzoglou, John T; Cayan, Daniel; Pierce, David (2021, October). "Hot and cold flavors of southern California's Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire". ProQuest. More than one of author-name-list parameters specified (help); Check date values in: |date= (help)
  11. ↑ Varga, Kevin; Jones, Charles; Trugman, Anna; Carvalho, Leila M V; McLoughlin, Neal; Seto, Daisuke; Thompson, Callum; Daum, Kristofer (2022). "Megafires in a Warming World: What Wildfire Risk Factors Led to California's Largest Recorded Wildfire". ProQuest.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Balch, Jennifer K; Bradley, Bethany A; Abatzoglou, John T; Nagy, R Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J; Mahood, Adam L (2017, February 27). "Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States". PubMed Central. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  13. ↑ "Twenty-year study confirms California forests are healthier when burned - or thinned". Factiva. 2023, December 25. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Koontz, Michael J; North, Malcolm P; Werner, Chhaya M; Fick, Stephen E; Latimer, Andrew M (2020, January 10). "Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests". Wiley Online Library. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 Li, Zhiyun; Yu, William (2025, March 7). "Economic impact of the Los Angeles wildfires". UCLA Anderson School of Management. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 Reining, Sebastian; Wussow, Moritz; Zanocco, Chad; Neumann, Dirk (07 January 2025). "Roof renewal disparities widen the equity gap in residential wildfire protection". Nature Communications. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 "Health Affects Attributed to Wildfire Smoke". United States Environmental Protection Agency. 30 Jan 2025.
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 Morrison, Rose (August 18, 2022). "The Environmental Impact of Wildfires". Earth.org.
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Witynski, Max. "Ecological succession, explained". UChicago News.
  20. ↑ Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony L; Wiedinmyers, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P (January 20, 2014). "Projected Effects of Climate and Development on California Wildfire Emissions through 2100". Environmental Science & Technology. Vol 48/Issue 4 – via ACS Publications.
  21. ↑ 21.00 21.01 21.02 21.03 21.04 21.05 21.06 21.07 21.08 21.09 21.10 21.11 McConnell, Kathryn; Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack; Whitaker, Stephan; Curtis, Katherine J; St Denis, Lise; Balch, Jennifer; Price, Kobie (2024, August 5). "Rare and highly destructive wildfires drive human migration in the U.S." Nature Communications. 15 – via PubMed Central. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 Tinoco, Nick (2023, April 11). "Post-disaster (im)mobility aspiration and capability formation: case study of Southern California wildfire". Population and Environment. 45 – via Proquest. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 Winkler, Richelle L; Rouleau, Mark D (2020, September 30). "Amenities or disamenities? Estimating the impacts of extreme heat and wildfire on domestic US migration". Population and Environment. 42: 622–648 – via Proquest. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 Berlin Rubin, Nina; Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle (2022, August 24). "As California burns: the psychology of wildfire- and wildfire smoke-related migration intentions". Population and Environment. 44: 15–45 – via Proquest. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  25. ↑ Rodríguez, Iokiñe; Inturias, Mirna; Masay, Elmar; Peña, Anacleto (September, 2023). "Decolonizing wildfire risk management: indigenous responses to fire criminalization policies and increasingly flammable forest landscapes in Lomerío, Bolivia". ScienceDirect. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Edgeley, Catrin M.; Burnett, Jack T. (2025). "Understanding rural adaptation to smoke from wildfires and forest management: insights for aligning approaches with community contexts". ProQuest.
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 Palsa, Emily; Bauer, Matt; Evers, Cody; Hamilton, Matt; Nielsen-Pincus, Max (February 9, 2022). "Engagement in local and collaborative wildfire risk mitigation planning across the western U.S.—Evaluating participation and diversity in Community Wildfire Protection Plans". PubMed Central.


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