Course:CONS200/2025WT2/The effects of wildfires on outmigration in California

As a result of climate change, the world has seen a significant increase in the frequency of extreme wildfires. California especially is a region that has been greatly impacted by severe wildfires. The damage caused by these fires damage infrastructure and cause health impacts to the people affected. 49% of residents reported being highly impacted by mandatory evacuations, 42% reported being impacted by poor air quality, and 61% reported being high to moderately impacted by power shutoffs (Howe et al., 2024). Outmigration, or the process of people permanently leaving an area in order to live somewhere else, can be affected by: an area’s perception as a ‘safe’ or ‘unsafe’ place, the actual severity and frequency of natural disasters, and the distribution and application of resources for disaster recovery (Lambrou et al., 2025). The impacts of wildfires in California, and the perception of the state as a place where wildfires occur, may be impacting outmigration from the area. In recent years, the state has shown a relative increase in out-migration rates compared to the previous decade (Gabriel et al.). We will discuss if and how the mental and physical impacts of wildfires could be related to this increase.

History of wildfire activity

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California’s ecosystems are historically adapted to wildfire as a disturbance agent. Prior to establishment of the United States of America, Indigenous populations utilized fire to shape the landscape and aid in certain endeavors such as hunting. The state of California has monitored wildfire activity since the early 1900’s, revealing patterns of increasing wildfire frequency and severity throughout the state. 18 of the 20 largest fires in the state’s history have occurred in the 21st century, and 12 of these 18 have occurred within the last decade (2015-2025).

The state of California has historically used traditional fire suppression techniques within its semi-arid mixed conifer forests. Suppression allows for the accumulation of biomass as fuel beyond natural fire intervals (between 5-20 years), which in turn contributes to the increased risk of severe wildfire for these ecosystems. Shifts in climate contribute to the aridity of both legacy and current fuel build-up in these ecosystems, which in turn contributes to severe wildfire risk.

Causes

Wildfires have always been a part of forest ecosystems, but in recent years we have seen a sharp increase in occurrence of severe fires. Climate and human activities are the most highly attributed to this trend.

Climate

In recent years, the climate has become undeniably warmer. In the twenty-first century, global temperatures have risen between 0.6 to 0.7℃ . In the United States, the time period from 1960 to 2013 was warmer than periods of comparable length from the past 600 years. This has been especially significant in the Southwest, which tends to be warmer than the rest of the U.S.

Temperature can be an important determinant in wildfire occurrence, affecting humidity and fuel sources. With the higher temperatures of recent years, air is able to hold more water, so as total moisture content remains the same, the relative humidity becomes lower. Precipitation has also decreased as a result of this increase in water storage capacity, leading to drought. The Santa Ana winds, hot and cold winds that flow over Southern California, can also contribute to these warming conditions. These winds are attributed to many extreme temperatures across Southern California. Hot winds, which though less severe than cold winds, can contribute to dry conditions that cause wildfires. These conditions cause fuel such as wood debris on the forest floor to lose more moisture. Combined with the preexisting dry conditions, it leads to larger and more frequent wildfires.

Human Impacts

While climate plays a part in causing wildfires, the recent increase in wildfires can be highly attributed to human activities. From 1992 to 2012, humans could be connected to 84% of fires across the United States. Human development introduces sources of ignition to the environment, which combined with dry fuels, creates severe wildfires. Proximity to roads and boundaries between wilderness and human developed areas have both been attributed to higher rates of wildfire occurrence.

Current wildfire management practices aim to suppress all forest fires, regardless of severity. There is evidence that fires are actually an important disturbance event for forests that increases biodiversity and resilience. Small fires create vertical and horizontal diversity in forests, allowing for fire resilience as some species are more tolerant of fire than others. This also creates gaps in fuel distribution that deter larger fires from occurring. Without this, forests become homogeneous, and fuel builds up rather than being periodically consumed. This leads to more wildfires at higher severities. This creates a feedback loop where, as fires get more severe, forests are no longer gaining biodiversity through small disturbances. Instead, when all vegetation is destroyed in a large fire, biodiversity is reduced and makes forest ecosystems more vulnerable.

Impacts

Economic Impact

Wildfires have caused a significant amount of economic damage in California. These types of damages include property damage, capital loss, and wage loss. The January 2025 wildfires of Southern California caused significant amounts of financial damage. The fires caused property damages and capital loss that range from 76 billion USD to 131 billion USD. These damages mainly comes from the 16,251 homes, properties, and structures destroyed in the fire. The amount also includes damage in other belongings such as automobiles. Additionally, business and employees of affected areas suffered an additional 297 million USD in lost wages. The fire is also expected to cause a 0.48% loss in county GDP leading to an approximate 4.6 billion USD in further economic damage. Wildfires are expected to become more prevalent as climate change worsens. Examples of other devastating fires in California include the Tubbs wildfire of 2018, and the Camp wildfire of 2017. The Tubbs wildfire caused 8.76 billion USD in insurance claims, and the Camp wildfire caused 8.26 billion USD in insurance claims.

Social Impact

Wildfires have had a significant impact on the Californian society. For one, wildfires have lead to higher living costs for the Californian populace. Wildfires have led to higher housing costs, as well as growing insurance premiums. Low-income communities tend to suffer greater consequences from wildfires. These communities tend to lack the savings and adequate insurance needed to recover from the disaster. This is one of the reasons why wildfires can exacerbate homelessness. Furthermore, low-income communities are also more likely to not have sufficient preventative measures. This makes their properties 29% more likely to be destroyed by wildfires than those that have such measures installed. An example of such preventative measures is roof renewals, with a roof renewal, the risk of a property being destroyed by wildfires can be reduced by up to 27%. As such, while wildfires negatively affect the entire population, it is much worse for low-income communities. Wildfires have also had major health implications on the Californian populace. Smoke from wildfires carry fine, often toxic, particulate matter, which damages the lungs of the inhaler. This can result in reductions in the ability to expel foreign objects, such as virus and bacteria, from the lungs. Inhaling these particles can also exacerbate existing respiratory diseases, as well as premature mortality.

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