Course:CONS200/2024WT1/The Mackerel war: Climate change impacts on the Mackerel fishery

The Mackerel War centers on a conflict regarding allocating the mackerel quota in the North East Atlantic fishery. In the early 2000s, climate change altered mackerel migration patterns, and the North Atlantic Fisheries Commission members failed to negotiate a reasonable share of the fish. While the North East Atlantic “Mackerel War" was eventually settled due to a joint arrangement allocating more fish stock to the Faroe Islands, as well as securing the conservation of the North East Atlantic mackerel stock for the next 5 years, there are many still conflicts ongoing throughout the oceans of the world. These conflicts have arisen in response to Mackerel's changing spawning points and migration patterns in the Atlantic due to climate change.  Atlantic Mackerel are fish native to the Atlantic Ocean in Europe and North America. The Canadian spawning group feeds and migrates July through October in Canadian waters before moving south into American waters from fall to winter. Addressing climate change impacts and fish allocation through policy solutions is crucial. Moving towards sustainable conservation and resource use, specifically working with the European fisheries-management system in the case of the EU.

Background

Atlantic Mackerel. (Milošević, 2015)

Atlantic Mackerel are fish native to the Atlantic Ocean in Europe and North America. There are two ‘groups’ of mackerel within North American waters, one in the north and the other in the south. The northern (Canadian) spawning group feeds and migrates July through October in Canadian waters before moving South into American waters from fall to winter, where they join the southern group. Mackerel reach maturity within two to three years and can live up to fifteen years of age.

As mackerel are located in the middle of the food chain, they transport energy and nutrients up and down the food chain. Changes regarding mackerel stocks, such as survival, growth, and distribution, are impacted by factors such as temperatures and the abundance of their prey. Predators of mackerel that contribute to their “natural mortality” include Atlantic bluefin tuna, northern gannets, cetaceans, grey seals, and groundfish.

Since 2007, Atlantic Mackerel have shifted dramatically in their distribution, moving North to colder water while temperatures rise. Interestingly, Atlantic Mackerel have been found to migrate close to 400 km to the North for every degree Celsius of warming.  

During the winter, the northern and southern mackerel stocks mix and are targeted primarily by American fishing fleets. Mackerel have sustained both commercial and recreational fishing, have been used for bait, have served as an Indigenous food source, and have had social and ceremonial uses as well .

Foreign fishing fleets fished for North American Atlantic mackerel until Canada and the US established a 200-knot exclusive economic zone. However, Canada allowed foreign fishers to fish for mackerel in Canadian waters until 2004. Mackerel caught by Canadian fleets reached a high in 2005 at 55726 metric tons. However, these catches fell dramatically over the following two decades and reached a low of 4272 metric tons by 2015. The TAC (Total Allowable Catch) for 2021 was a mere 4000 metric tons, and the fishery was closed to commercial and bait fishing the following year, seen as stocks had become severely depleted.    

The Importance of Northeast Atlantic Mackerel and Its Fishery

The Northeast Atlantic mackerel (NEAM) is a highly traded and economically valuable fish stock, particularly for coastal regions. This species plays a crucial role in the marine ecosystem and global fish trade. However, its management has grown increasingly complex due to shifting environmental conditions. Climate change has significantly altered the mackerel’s migration patterns, expanding its distribution to new areas, including Iceland and Greenland during the summer months. These changes have introduced new stakeholders to the fishery and heightened competition over this valuable resource.

The Abracadabra in the Atlantic, (Chief Intelligence Specialist Deshonia Weslgy, 2010)

The populations of mackerel fish impact both the environment and the economy. In 2014 the Mackerel fish stock reached around 1.4 million tons, generating economic activity for several coastal states, relying on NEAM fisheries. This, this population increase has altered the biomass in the Nordic Seas. Mackerel and herring are two of the main pelagic fish stocks in the Nordic seas. They’re planktonic feeders that predominantly consume calanoid copepods. The competition for food resources among the fish species influences their distribution. However, overfishing is affecting marine biodiversity and the overall abundance of Mackerel.

Scientific recommendations highlight the dangers of overfishing and its potential to decrease yields over time. Overfishing and shifting oceanic conditions have reduced marine biomass and further complicated the management of mackerel stocks. The International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) provides critical guidance by assessing spawning and mortality rates and forecasting stock predictions. Despite these efforts, the ICES reported in 2018 that mackerel harvesting rates had become unsustainable for the first time since 2007.

Effective management of NEAM stocks requires international cooperation. Mismanagement risks invoking the "tragedy of the commons," where shared resources are overexploited in the absence of effective regulation. The Atlantic oceanic species face unprecedented pressure from climate-induced migration changes and overfishing, highlighting the importance and need for a science-based governance.

The Commercial Conflicts and Formation of the "Mackerel War"

The "Mackerel War" refers to an ongoing international conflict over the allocation of mackerel quotas in the Northeast Atlantic. This dispute involves key stakeholders, including Iceland, Greenland, the Faroe Islands, the European Union (EU), and Norway, and was sparked in 2009 when Iceland and Greenland unilaterally set independent quotas. This action breached an agreement established by the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC), disrupting international consensus.

The conflict escalated in 2010 when the Faroes exited the Coastal States Agreement (CSA) after the EU and Norway declined to adjust their quotas in response to Iceland’s self-allocated increases. The Faroes rejoined the CSA in 2014 when increased mackerel stocks allowed for higher quotas. However, Iceland and Greenland have continued to operate outside the CSA framework, setting their quotas independently and fueling ongoing tensions.

Climate change has been a significant driver of this conflict, altering migration patterns and redistributing mackerel stocks across international waters. This redistribution has strained existing agreements and exposed the inadequacy of cooperative management frameworks. Furthermore, disputes have been amplified by Norway, the EU, and the Faroes exceeding the ICES-recommended quotas.

The conflict emphasizes the challenges of achieving sustainable fisheries management in the face of shifting environmental and geopolitical conditions. International cooperation is essential to address these disputes and to prevent further depletion of mackerel stocks, ensuring the long-term sustainability of this vital resource.

The Path Forward

Moving forward, a few solutions may help with stock allocation. One such is new multilateral agreements, which should benefit all parties, as the use of an agreement must be better than not having one at all. The creation of new multilateral agreements should acknowledge the changing migration patterns of the North Atlantic mackerel due to climate change. Most older agreements for fish allocation and stocks were based on political decisions or older geographic distributions based on historical catches. However, one of the most significant issues regarding policy solutions is the fight between the scientific and management sides of decision-making. Passing agreements is often a long and political process that needs to be faster to act in the changing environment. When this occurs, there is the possibility of exploiting the resource, such as in the case of Iceland. To counter this, possible solutions could include flexible access, which could lower the cost of fishing or raise the value of the stock.

Further, windfall taxes may be a temporary solution while ongoing agreements are made. This windfall tax would fall on certain fisheries if they exceeded a certain quota. If this tax were to materialize, it would be the EU that would enforce said tax. The mackerel wars resulted in a significant increase in allowable catch, which is concerning for the sustainability of the species. In addition to climate issues for mackerel, it is predicted that if increased numbers of total allocated catch continue, fishing intensity will have a much more significant impact on the mackerel stock moving towards 2050 than climate. Creating an agreement that responds to countries' needs while mitigating overfishing is crucial for the future of North Atlantic mackerel.

As one of the earth’s most extensive global commons, it is crucial to address climate change and what it means for the ocean. As one of the root causes of the mackerel war, not only creating new agreements based on changing migration patterns is necessary. One of the main drivers of the change in migration patterns is the warming of sea temperatures. This is partly due to the ocean being one of the planet's most considerable heat and carbon sinks. Although as human activity increases, so does carbon use, mitigating carbon use continues to be the next step forward. The European Union (EU) has decreased greenhouse gas emissions by 37% below 1990 levels as of 2023 and strives for climate neutrality by 2050. This is not only an issue for the EU, but also needs to be addressed on a global scale. The Gulf Stream, which runs along the eastern side of the United States and Canada, feeds the water in which the mackerel live in. This gulf stream is a part of the large ocean conveyor belt covering the Atlantic Ocean, that runs along three continents. The changing speed and temperature of the ocean conveyor belt affects more than just the EU, and needs to be addressed by all countries who benefit from the commons.

Furthermore, other climate stressors not accounted for may change fish patterns, such as increased ocean acidity and a decline in ocean oxygen concentration due to warming. Ocean acidification is detrimental to larval mortality and fish abundance, and lower oxygen concentration affects energy rates, which correlate to fish growth and metabolism. Overall, climate change and anthropogenic processes need to be addressed as they play a massive role in preserving healthy fish stocks for the future.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Mackerel War highlights the significant challenges that climate change presents to international fisheries management and the necessity for innovative solutions. The shift in Atlantic mackerel migration patterns, as evidenced by their movement up to 400 kilometers north for every degree Celsius increase in temperature, demonstrates the urgency of adapting management strategies to align with these changes. The dramatic decline in mackerel stocks—from 55,726 metric tons in 2005 to a low of 4,272 metric tons by 2015—emphasizes the dire need for effective quota allocation and conservation efforts.

Moreover, the transition from shared fishing practices among countries to disputes over exclusive economic zones underscores the complexities of international cooperation in fisheries. Future agreements must reflect the current distribution of mackerel and consider ecological sustainability and the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. This necessitates timely decision-making processes that integrate scientific data with management practices.

Ultimately, without proactive and adaptable measures to address both overfishing and environmental stressors, the sustainability of mackerel stocks remains at risk. Stakeholders must unite, employing multilateral agreements and innovative approaches like windfall taxes to balance economic interests with ecological preservation. The future of North Atlantic mackerel—and the health of the marine ecosystems they inhabit—depends on collaborative efforts to respond to the ongoing and evolving challenges posed by climate change.