forum 5: week of 6 Feb. Hawthorne and lotteries
So he's got: A(for sure), A->B, -B(not for sure). In relation to just the safari heart attack scenario, A is knowledge about a plan you have made, so that knowledge is self dependent. B not a piece of knowledge that is dependent on your volition, so it is of a different quality, it is more alien to your perspective then is A. This is the reason A is proposed with confidence while B is proposed with apprehension. The middle inference still makes sense, but it does not create a logical paradox by transitioning certainty into uncertainty, A and B have their qualities all along.