forum 5: week of 6 Feb. Hawthorne and lotteries
I found most of Hawthorne's examples to be fairly similar with some small variations. They all seemed to serve the same purpose of demonstrating what he sees as our intuitive ways of reasoning (duplicate and parity reasoning). If we are to accept these types of reasoning as intuitive, which seems to me permissible in most cases, it leads to the conclusion that people are just inherently bad at probabilistic reasoning. Assuming it is equally unlikely that I will go on an African safari next week as it is that I will win the lottery, a subject should be just as willing to say that they know either case will or won't obtain.