Reasoning Under Uncertainty

Interesting examples of reasoning under uncertainty: (add as you see fit)

1.The Monty Hall Problem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Note that more interesting than the solution itself, is the analysis of the assumptions which may lead you to think that this is less of a paradox than it really is claimed to be (or maybe not). Equally, or more, engrossing is the following excerpt from the article:

"Interestingly, pigeons make mistakes and learn from mistakes, and experiments show that they rapidly learn to always switch, unlike humans". Why you ask? In short, heuristics. You can read more about "Are birds smarter than mathematicians? Pigeons (Columba livia) perform optimally on a version of the Monty Hall Dilemma." here http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20175592