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Ivan Egirait-Situation analysis, problem tree, and stakeholder analysis

Malaysia, located in Southeast Asia (WorldData.info, 2026), comprises of approximately 18.88 million hectares of forest, with Sarawak contributing the largest share (FAO, 2025; Koh et al., 2023). It accounts for roughly 43% of Malaysia’s total remaining forest cover; however, only 11% are fully protected(Koh et al., 2023).

The palm oil sector is particularly dominant wherein palm oil surpassed crude petroleum as the Sarawak’s leading export in 2023, generating approximately USD 3.1 billion (UKAS, 2025). Oil palm plantations cover approximately 5.65 million hectares of Malaysia’s land area, of which Sarawak hosts ~1.62 million hectares (ISIS Malaysia & UPM, 2024a). See figure 1 below for state level distribution.

Figure 1: State-Level Share of Oil Palm Plantation Area in Malaysia (2023)

Source: Ministry of Plantation and Commodities (2024)

Source: Ministry of Plantation and Commodities (2024)

Estimates suggest that nearly 90% of the Sarawak’s primary forest has been lost to deforestation over the past five decades (Merriman, 2025; Sasada, 2025). This has been driven primarily by conversion of forests to large-scale oil palm plantations (ISIS Malaysia & UPM, 2024a). Additional drivers include timber and rubber plantations, legal and illegal logging, mining activities, and major infrastructure projects (Koh et al., 2023).

Underlying these drivers include weak land-tenure frameworks, inadequate recognition of Native Customary Rights (NCR), corruption and vested political–economic interests tied to timber and plantation concessions(Koh et al., 2023). Strong global demand for palm oil and pulp, coupled with government incentives such as subsidies and expansion targets, have further reinforced pressure on forested land (ISIS Malaysia & UPM, 2024a, 2024b).

The consequences of this primary forest deforestation have been multidimensional, encompassing biodiversity loss, increased greenhouse gas emissions, environmental degradation, social conflict, and long-term economic vulnerabilities (Human Rights Watch, 2025; Koh et al., 2023). See annex 2 for problem tree diagram.

In terms of stakeholders, at state level, the Ministry of Urban Development and Natural Resources (MUDeNR) provides policy oversight, with implementation undertaken by specialized agencies. The Forest Department Sarawak is responsible for forest management planning, while the Sarawak Forestry Corporation oversees conservation and protection functions(Forest Department Sarawak, 2026; Ministry of Natural Resources and Urban Development, 2026; World Resources Institute, 2024).

Land governance, including the adjudication of NCR, falls under the jurisdiction of the Land and Survey Department with the federal Ministry of Plantation and Commodities influencing the sector through regulatory standards developed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (Malay Mail, 2024). Plantation companies and smallholder associations, primarily those represented by the Sarawak Oil Palm Plantation Owners Association (SOPPOA), exert considerable influence reinforced by market incentives, whereas Indigenous communities often possess limited political leverage despite their legally recognized NCR claims and forest dependence over the decades (Kiu, 2024; Ho, 2025). NGOs, and certification schemes such as the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil standard (MSPO), as well as sustainability commitments by global buyers continue to exert growing, though still uneven, influence in shaping forest governance outcomes (Human Rights Watch, 2025; ISIS Malaysia & UPM, 2024a; Koh et al., 2023).

Theory of change, Logical framework and narrative

To address primary forest deforestation, the proposed theory of change (TOC) articulates an overarching impact statement which stipulates that IF Sarawak strengthens forest governance, secures Native Customary Rights tenure, and transitions priority palm oil supply chains toward deforestation-free production systems, THEN primary forest loss will decline by 70% by 2040, BECAUSE land-use decisions will shift from politically driven forest conversion toward transparent, community-inclusive, and climate-aligned management supported by sustainable palm oil markets. See Annex 3 for theory of change diagram.

This projection is considered achievable, as evidenced by Brazil’s integrated approach between 2004 and 2012, which combined robust forest monitoring, stringent policy enforcement, advocacy, market interventions, and international financing, achieving over 70% reduction in deforestation during that period (Andrade, 2026).

The TOC rests on several key assumptions that underlie the likelihood of success. First, it assumes that Sarawak’s Forest Department and Land & Survey Department will prioritize forest monitoring and compliance with the MSPO certification framework (Forest Department Sarawak, 2026; Malay Mail, 2024). This expectation is reinforced by mounting international pressure from the EU, NGOs, consumer brands, and local communities, under the EUDR, which aims to reduce deforestation linked to commodities entering the EU market, a major destination for Malaysian palm oil (The Borneo Project, 2025a, 2025b).

Second, the TOC presumes that the Sarawak Land Code will continue progressing toward consistent legal recognition of NCR rights across Indigenous and local communities (Malay Mail, 2024). Despite some inconsistency in application, existing pathways for improved legal recognition are anticipated to reduce land tenure disputes among stakeholders (Awang Mahmood, 2026).

Third, it is expected that the SOPPOA will uphold its commitments to market-based incentives promoting compliance with sustainable practices (Kiu, 2024). Degraded Permanent Forest Estates for restoration are also anticipated to possess viable soil conditions and strong community buy-in, fostering greater engagement in sustainable forest management (Minggu, 2026)

Barriers are anticipated to challenge implementation. Weak enforcement capacity may constrain forest managers and frontline officers in regulating companies and addressing illegal activities (Koh et al., 2023). This could impede activities such as developing satellite-based deforestation monitoring systems, training agencies for data-sharing, and establishing multi-stakeholder land governance platforms (ISIS Malaysia & UPM, 2024a, 2024b).

Political and economic pressure on state policymakers and rural communities to prioritize plantation expansion over long-term forest protection may hinder activities like implementing community-based forest restoration projects, supporting agroforestry initiatives, strengthening protected area management, and promoting adoption of sustainable palm oil certification systems (Human Rights Watch, 2025; Koh et al., 2023).

Inconsistent recognition of Indigenous land tenure may undermine government accountability slowing activities such as participatory mapping of Indigenous territories, provision of legal assistance for NCR recognition, and the establishment of conflict-resolution mechanisms between communities and plantation companies (ISIS Malaysia & UPM, 2024a; 2024b)

Political influence exerted by vested interests in timber and oil palm plantation industries may weaken transparency and accountability in land-use decisions, thereby diminishing the effectiveness of capacity-building programs and traceability system implementation (Kiu, 2024; Koh et al., 2023).

A comprehensive package of activities is delivered. Developing satellite-based deforestation monitoring systems, training government agencies in data-sharing and forest surveillance and establishing multi-stakeholder land governance platforms are projected to produce the output of improved forest monitoring and governance systems, leading to the outcome of strengthened forest governance and enforcement capacity. The associated co-benefit from this process will be enhanced livelihoods and reduced conflict through more reliable and equitable forest management structures. In Indonesia, Indigenous communities have used satellite data to monitor and report illegal logging activities, while in Suriname, deforestation data has been instrumental in exposing threats to the Saamaka people’s land rights. In both cases this significantly reduced deforestation (Reytar et al., 2023).

The implementation of community-based forest restoration projects, support for agroforestry initiatives, and reinforced management of protected areas are expected to yield the output of forest restoration and conservation initiatives. This, in turn, will result in the outcome of climate-resilient and restored forest landscapes. Community-based forest management programs have been effective in Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, resulting in increased forest cover, biodiversity preservation, and reduced deforestation while providing local communities with income-generating opportunities that advance economic well-being(Bhusal et al., 2024).

Participatory mapping of Indigenous territories, providing legal assistance for NCR recognition, and setting up conflict-resolution platforms, are projected to yield the output of strengthened recognition and mapping of NCR lands. The corresponding outcome will be secure recognition and protection of NCR to land, with the co-benefit of improved livelihoods and reduced conflict through reduced disputes and equitable access to forest resources. In Suriname’s Amazon rainforest, the Saamaka community in efforts to reduce deforestation, have been successful in utilizing spatial data and mapping tools from LandMark to document illegal deforestation and land degradation on their territories (World Resources Institute, 2026).

Training stakeholders in sustainable practices, supporting adoption of the MSPO certification, and developing traceability systems for deforestation-free palm oil supply chains is anticipated to generate the output of sustainable palm oil certification and landscape management, facilitating the outcome of deforestation-free palm oil production in supply chains. The co-benefit will be enhanced biodiversity conservation across agro-industrial landscapes. Progress in this regard has been evident in Indonesia through its mandatory national certification scheme, the Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil standard, supported by forest-use restrictions, audits, and updated supply-chain traceability requirements (Sarmiento et al., 2024). Traceability was improved by requiring certified operators to identify the origin of fresh fruit bunches and disclosure of supplier and buyer linkages across the value chain(Sarmiento et al., 2024).

Gender analysis

Disparities continue to shape women's roles in Sarawak's forest and palm oil sectors (aus der Beek, 2026). Adult literacy rates lag for women (72%) compared to men (96.8%) and national averages (Borneo Post, 2017; Statbase, 2026), potentially constraining NCR claims and MSPO certification access. Labour force participation within the forestry sector is similarly gendered, with men disproportionately represented in formal employment (15.3% compared to 7.9%) (Lim, 2019; Meng, 2009).

Division of labor reflects gendered norms wherein women handle intensive forest gathering amid mobility/time constraints, yet hold limited decision-making power (Bitzer et al., 2024). Women's ethnobotanical expertise too complemented men's, supporting restoration and livelihoods (Faridah Aini et al., 2017). Climate change further intensifies these inequalities, as deforestation disproportionately increases women’s household responsibilities, undermining their adaptive capacity, primarily in relation to food and water security (Dasgupta, 2024; Alam et al., 2025).

To address these gaps, the project proposes gender quotas ensuring at least 40% female participation in governance platforms, gender sensitive NCR mapping, and agroforestry initiatives. Complementary measures, including flexible training schedules and gender-disaggregated monitoring are anticipated to enhance equitable access to MSPO certification, leadership opportunities, and livelihood benefits across project phases (Guillaume, 2017; aus der Beek, 2026).

Risk analysis

Risks are anticipated across activities. Political changes in land‑use policies present a high‑likelihood, high‑impact threat that could weaken reform commitments, disrupting implementation. Mitigation will include sustained stakeholder engagement, policy advocacy, transparency, and alignment with institutional frameworks (Sarmiento et al., 2024). If this risk occurs, adaptive programming and stronger partnerships with stakeholders will be employed to sustain momentum (Sanz & Perea Blazquez, 2025).

Climate shocks pose a moderate‑likelihood, high‑impact risk, for restoration and agroforestry efforts. Mitigation will emphasize climate‑resilient species selection and adaptive land management drawing on proven practices from India and Nepal (Dhyani et al., 2021). Mitigation will include recovery and livelihood support strategies to relieve pressure on forests.

Stakeholder conflict represents a moderate‑likelihood, moderate‑to‑high‑impact risk that could delay participatory mapping and NCR recognition. Mitigation will involve inclusive engagement, proactive conflict‑resolution mechanisms, and stakeholder mapping (Wiati et al., 2018; Sarmiento et al., 2024). If disputes arise, mediation platforms will be intensified to rebuild trust.

Market volatility in palm oil prices presents a moderate‑likelihood, moderate‑impact risk affecting primarily smallholders (Reich & Musshoff, 2025). Mitigation will include long‑term market incentives and certification benefits, while response efforts will focus on strengthening value chain partnerships and income diversification (Sarmiento et al., 2024).

Appendices

Annex 1: Map Showing the location of Sarawak.

Source: Human Rights Watch, 2025

Annex 2: Problem Tree for Sarawak illustrating the core problem of primary forest deforestation due to oil palm conversion of forests in Sarawak, its causes and effects

Biodiversity loss (orangutans, hornbills and many endemic species lose habitat)

Greenhouse gas emissions (From peatland drainage under oil palms)

Environmental impacts (soil erosion, sedimentation of rivers and altered water cycles)

Social impacts (displacement of Indigenous and rural communities, conflict over land, communities report losing access to hunting, fishing and traditional lands)

Economic vulnerabilities (overreliance on a boom‑bust commodity).

Conversion of natural primary forests to oil palm plantations.

Global market demand for palm oil (food, cosmetics, biofuel, animal feed)

National/state policies and incentives promoting plantation agriculture (e.g. land concessions, zoning of forest for agriculture, targets for palm output).

Land-tenure and governance gaps (vague title deeds, weak enforcement, overlapping laws in Sarawak)

Economic pressures (poverty reduction goals, desire for export revenue) that prioritize plantation development over conservation.

Source: Secondary data, 2026

Annex 3: Theory of Change Diagram

Ivan Egirait Updated Theory of Change Diagram

Source: Secondary data, 2026

References

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