ECON371/UBCO2024WT1/NewsWiki/group2/Week 2
Week 2 Wiki:
Title: Increase in West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting Inevitable in 21st Century
URL:
Problem:
Reducing emissions will not have as immediate of an effect on rising sea levels as anticipated and we must prepare for the predicted threats. Previous research on the melting of the west Antarctic ice sheet has proven unreliable due to limitations in the models used, and we must now change how we measure the melting ice sheet to better observe and predict changes in sea level.
Summary:
This article highlights the importance of the Antarctic icebergs and the negative environmental impacts that will follow the melting glaciers, specifically highlighting a resulting 5.3m increase in sea level as a result of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting. The article covers which pollution factors are major contributors and why it is important to start preservation efforts now rather than later. Even if we were to stop today, we likely would not see conditions get better for many decades. Notably, the article claims warmer waters are the main reason for melting glaciers and ice shelves. We must be more careful as the author believes that some irreversible damage is already imminent.
Economic Concepts:
Option Value: Option value is a non-market benefit that people enjoy. This concept refers to placing a value on an environmental resource when its depletion of it is irreversible and there is uncertainty about what benefits the resource might yield in the future. People, usually, are willing to pay for a resource to maintain the option of having a resource in the future, even though they are currently not using it. This value can be positive when people place importance on the resource or negative if they perceive it as less important than its future use.
Paris Agreement: The Paris agreement is an international charter that was adopted to help reduce the increase of global temperatures and try to keep it 2℃ of pre-industrial levels. It was brought into effect in 2016. It requires heavy declines of greenhouse gas emissions and a focus on social and economic transformations.
Prof: The Paris Agreement is not an economic concept. A related concept might be international agreements and enforcement mechanisms, of which the Paris Agreement has none.
Application:
Option value: The article talks about the inevitable melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet due to warmer temperatures and rising sea levels. It also mentions that even with reducing carbon emissions, the warming and its effects will persist, making melting irreversible. The idea of option value is relevant in this case as people may be ready to pay to protect the ice sheet from melting, in order to preserve the future benefits. If they perceive some future benefits, such as lessening sea level rise, access to freshwater and more, to be necessary then the option value will be positive. However if they aren’t perceived as important but have future benefits, then the option value would be negative.
Prof: What is the option that people are paying to protect? Is it that paying to protect the ice sheet, which would take the form of reducing emissions causing climate change, is a payment that would reduce the probability of sea level rise leading to either extensive flooding, or expensive investments in protection? A more clear link between the thing that is being paid for as an option would make this a better example.
Paris Agreement: While the Paris Agreement is definitely ambitious, the article tries to strike a contrast on how global emissions reduction will not stop the melting of the West Antarctic Sheet, unlike previously thought. The melting is inevitable even if all the Paris Agreement goals are met. The Paris Agreement sets a good goal, however, emissions would serve as a significant reducer of melting of the glaciers after the year 2100 as seen by the research in the article. The effects would not be seen until much later, due to the fact that the circulation of warm water towards the ice shelves will take more time to cool down, hence a delay.
Prof: As noted above, this is not really an economic concept. One could like the Paris Agreement to things like open access or public goods. The atmosphere is an open access resource, or a clean atmosphere or stable climate can be seen as a public good. The challenge with the Paris Agreement is it lacks any kind of enforcement. Thus, it does not do anything about the open access or public good problems that we confront in dealing with climate change.
Conclusion:
The topic of climate change and the resulting impacts is a constantly evolving issue as both research, and scientific methods improve. As new information comes out we must weigh the new resulting predictions, and plan for how we may protect what is threatened due to rising sea levels, as well as preserving what is left of Antarctica. The concept of option value highlights the importance of preserving the ice sheet to maintain future benefits, even as the timeline for seeing positive results from emissions reductions extends well beyond this century due to a lower thermal conductivity in the ocean. Immediate action is necessary to slow the warming of the oceans and mitigate long-term damage to both the Antarctic Continent, and low sea level communities.