Course:POLI3802012/Survey/RealEstateVancouver
Topic: Real Estate, Affordability, Housing
Reminder: Write properly structured questions, including simple text for response options. Use the discussion tab above for discussion of advantages and disadvantages of particular questions and their wording.
Contributors: 1. Jake Michalik 2. Spencer Chang 4. Brenden Walsh 5. Abigail Shakespeare 6. Brian Cho 7. 8. Rabi Sun 9. Jessica Chan 10. Renata de Oliviera 11. David Pasca 12. Alex Grigoriev 13. Edward Wong 14. Lida Paslar 15. Dren Maloku 16. Mansie Virmani
(Hey, can we use the discussion tab to do intro's etc. It's super cluttered on here, and we're just supposed to have our questions on this page. - Jake)
(Brenden Walsh) I agree with Lena that it's important that we focus our survey on a wide audience. If we simply distribute this survey to our friends and colleagues the data will likely be skewed as the majority are not likely to be homeowners. I think that we should all try to distribute the survey to people that we think may provide us with some unique an diverse perspectives. That way we will be able to hopefully achieve a sample that resembles a true sampling of vancouver residents. I for one am planning on sending around the survey at work (I work part-time in an office downtown) so hopefully I will be able to get some responses from homeowners, people with rentals ect. I know that not everybody has the opportunity to have access to a population like that but my suggestion would be to get creative, ask you parents to ask friends, colleagues, try profs in some of your other courses ect.
I like the idea of focusing our questions around the housing bubble, I provided one question earlier in this assignment down below. I think that since we can only have 5 questions we should make them specific and focused. Maybe have one or two as controls (in which part of Vancouver do you reside, are you a homeowner, tenant ect.) followed by 3-4 very specific questions about an issue like the housing bubble (do you agreee with the statement that their is a bubble right now, you you expect prices to remain constant increase ect.) anyways we're running out of time now so we should come together and settle on these questions tonight before the deadline.
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Questions
(Feb 20) [Lena H] Sorry to rejoin the discussion so late, but I've looked through the questions and I like Edward's idea of assessing how "attitudes towards the current boom in housing prices are contributing to a bubble". Unfortunately, I'm not sure how we're going to survey an appropriate audience (will we all call up 100 random people in Yellow Pages? Probably best to keep it simple) because if we only relied on asking our own friends, needless to say, I doubt few are homeowners at all. Dren's idea is also a good one, but it seems a bit arbitrary and difficult to interpret the results we'll get if people answer, say "58" and "59" on a 1-100 point scale. It's hard to tell the difference between the two numbers. However, point scale is a good idea.
Overall, I don't want to overtake the discussion but since we're short on time, here are my suggestions. It's definitely good to study people's questions (like the thermometer scale in the assignment):
1. (David's) Question on where they reside (ie. Kerrisdale, Fairview, Renfrew, Riley Park). Let's keep it within Vancouver? We can assign numbers to each neighbourhood to make it easier to numerate.
2. (Dren's) On a scale of (1-?), what do you think of the adorability of the Vancouver housing market? (to judge how people feel about Vancouver's market)
3. (Edward's) Question on people's expectations about the value of houses in Vancouver.
4. Question on whether they think there is a 'housing bubble' in Vancouver
5. Then follow up on whether or not they've acted accordingly to their expectations on the housing bubble. Perhaps they've decided to invest in more land, have thoughts about selling their house for a profit, land speculation, etc.
We can measure the income (by asking their income in more general questions?) and see which area they reside in and whether there is a correlation between income and residence. This could also be applied to their expectations and actions regarding the supposed 'housing bubble' ie. more rich people reside in Kerrisdale, more likely to own more property? Hope we can get this together before the deadline :)
Abigail: I really like the questions you picked, they show a good range, however i think that we should either stick to them all being a 1-100 range or option type questions. I personally don't like 1-100, i think it make it too arbitrary for people to pick a number - i also think we should definitely put in an income question into it before you ask people if they can afford their house to seem if there is a difference in wealthy people buying outside of their means vs. less wealthy people buying out of theirs. - could we come up with a better word than adorability? like desirability maybe?
Lida: I agree with the comments above. These are good questions, but just a thought I would add one more about whether or not they do own/have paid off a home/inherited one and have you taken out/do you currently have a mortgage on a house? I figure this one will simply calculate how many do own homes. I actually like the measuring using the yellow pages bit.
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Hi guys. I'm Renata I would be interested in finding a correlation between ethnic background and value of the houses for Vancouver. So maybe we could ask a question related to their background. "What would you classify your background as: and then list a couple of options". Or also ask about how they immigrated to Canada, perhaps their is a strong value of house difference between immigrants that came to Canada as for example refugees and those that came as Investor immigrants; the latter driving the housing market up.
(Jessica Chan) I like this idea of ethnic background versus value of housing for Vancouver, more so because I think foreign investment boosting the Vancouver real estate market is an large issue and factor we need to consider. Hence, I question primary sources of income such as: a) Are you currently employed in Vancouver? If so, for how many years? (answer in ranges) b) Do you also hold any overseas investments? If so roughly how much? (answer also in ranges)
(Jake Michalik - Feb 4th) Do you believe Vancouver properties are: underpriced, fairly priced, unfairly priced (I realize this is super broad, but it could be a good place to start)
(Jake Michalik - Feb 22nd) Do you own a or rent a property: rent, or own (again, a rather base question but, pretty essential)
Well I would start by asking if we could somehow change the direction of that question slightly. That is, if we asked people living in Vancouver, or even in the Greater Vancouver area, I'm sure that most of them, if not all, would say "unfairly priced." Could we then ask for what they think would be solutions to affordable housing? (Spencer C)
Which part of Vancouver do you desire to live in the most? 1. Vancouver (West) 2. Vancouver (East) (I'm not sure if this is a good way to start, but I guess we're only discussing Vancouver? By the way, there is a discussions tab so let's use that. I'll repost this there - Lena H)
(Jessica Chan) Also, perhaps asking how much does living with people of the race/ ethnicity is a factor when choosing a home to buy?
4. Vancouver real estate is currently in a state referred to as a "bubble" which implies that housing values are extremely inflated. In the next 5 years, do you believe the average price of a house in Vancouver will increase, stay constant or decrease ? (Brenden Walsh)
1. What is your total family income (before or after taxes?)--you can see options for this in the example Fred sent out.
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Hey guys, David Pasca here. It's time to resume our conversation. We are coming up on our deadline to finalize the five questions for this survey set. Since we need to pool more questions, I am contributing a number of broad questions; however, I recommend we help each other to reformulate these questions to condense them.
Wealth Information:
1. Indicate household income bracket:
a. Under 10k
b. 10k
c. 20k
d. 30k
e. 40k
f. 50k
g. 60k
h. 70k
i. 80k
j. 90k
k. 100k
l. 125k
m. 150k
n. Over 150k
PS: I realize incomes are more varied than this and that real estate is valued higher than national levels in Vancouver.
2. Indicate Canadian household net worth bracket:
(interesting to see what we get with positive home ownership. Brackets should be more extensive to reflect home values and equity)
a. Choices should go up in the millions.
3. Do you own your home?
a. Yes
b. No
Residence Information:
1. Please indicate neighborhood of residence:
a. We'll use constituencies
Ethnic Background (Skewed in favor of immigration; help me correct this!)
1. Citizenship:
a. Yes
b. No
2. Immigrant:
a. Yes
b. No
3. Region of Origin (Only applies to immigration; not a measure of ethnic background)
a. We can consult immigration data to see where people come from.
4. Ethnic background (Do you think we are too explicit? Also, may seem redundant because of the previous question, but how
are we to record the ethnic background of those who are Canadian by birth?)
a. Same as above.
Cheers,
David
Edward: It's okay to simply ask them what would they say their ethnic background is, and if they are immigrants what their country of origin is. No need to offer multiple choices because we can recode later; for now we just want specific information. Not sure if ethnicity is very relevant but more for curiosity's sake i guess.
Immigration, how, when, why, from where is all important. Here are some of my suggestions for that section.
If immigrant
1) Under which class of immigration did you arrive? -Family Class -Skilled Class -Investor Class -Don't Know/Refused
2) What year did you arrive in Canada?
3) What is your place of origin?
4) How many homes in Canada do you own? What are the values of each property?
5) What year did you purchase each property? What was the price of the property at the time of purchase?
6) Which of your properties, if any, were newly constructed at the time of purchase? [They would have paid GST on these if they want clarification)]
7) What is the value of your mortgages, if any?
Everyone, including non-immigrants:
1) Considering the last time you purchased a house, was it possible for you to afford to buy a more expensive one, either through a larger mortgage or by paying the whole amount?
-If they answer yes: How much more expensive a home could you have afforded at the time? What year was this and what was the purchase price?
- I think this question is vitally important for finding out from both immigrants and non-immigrants how much more of an increase in real estate values the market can bear.
-Cheers, Edward
Hi everyone, I am Dren Maloku. Just a little reminder that our deadline is only two days away, and to complete our task we have to finish the 5 questions for the survey set. Since we need to pool more questions, I am contributing two additional questions of mine; and I will concentrate the rest of my efforts in reformulating and or condensing some of your questions.
1. On a scale of 0-100 what do you think of the adorability of the Vancouver housing market?
2. On a scale of 0-100 how much do you believe foreign investors influence the Vancouver housing market?
Cheers,
Dren
A possible suggestion for David
Income Brackets
1.10-30K
2. 30-50K
3. 50-70K
4.70-90K
5.100K
A possible suggestion for Edward
1. We could ask a question that would make it possible to compare the values of real estate over time instead.
Cheers,
Dren
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Edward here. Responding to the above suggestion. I like the question about foreign investors.
I think more scientifically accurate values of real estate over time are readily available. Perhaps we should focus more on public opinion and expectations, since expectations fuel speculation that can prolong or pop a housing bubble. Expectations are not something inherently measureable from price increases and can really only be found by surveying people, so I think it might be well worth it to ask about that rather than the actual increase in value over time. That said your suggestion has given me a good idea.
In order to assess how attitudes towards the current boom in housing prices are contributing to a bubble, how about this kind or survey:
Over the past two years the price of real estate in Vancouver has increased. Do you think that Vancouver is in a housing bubble? Yes/No/DK
Over the next 2 years, do you expect the value of houses in Vancouver to:
a) increase as fast or faster than it has in the past 2 years
b) increase but at a slower rate than the past two years
c) remain about the same
d) decrease but not enough to reverse the increases of the past two years or
e) decrease by more than enough to reverse the increases of the past two years
These questions are valuable since if we are in a bubble, why do people think that prices will keep going up? Who are the people who think this? What is their response to their expectations? If someone answers that we are in a bubble and yet they are buying to get into the market or think that prices will rise just as quickly over the next two years, they are either very confused financially, or they somehow believe that the bubble will last for at least another two years. Which is why I would also propose:
When prices of real estate in Vancouver rise, Vancouver residents may respond in two different ways, buying into the market or selling out of the market. Buying means expanding their housing portfolio to get into a booming market, including buying another home, selling a home but buying a more expensive one, or selling a home to buy two homes that have a greater total value than their original home. Vancouver residents might also respond to an increase in housing prices by selling, which means cashing in and downsizing their housing portfolio, including selling a home, selling a home and buying a cheaper home, or selling a home and renting instead. As a Vancouver resident, given the current trend of significant increases in the prices of real estate, how have you responded to this over the past ten years? Have you:
a) Expanded your assets in Vancouver real estate by buying
b) Decided to neither buy or sell your real estate (or remain a renter if you were before)
c) Cashed in on the market and own less real estate than before
What are your plans for the next two years? Do you:
a) Plan to buy and expand your assets in Vancouver real estate
b) Plan to neither buy nor sell your real estate
c) Plan to sell and downsize your real estate
The final question may be something else that informs us about the nature of attitudes, expectations and speculation. Or when they moved to Vancouver. The attitudes about how foreign investors are influencing the market is also good and may take the place of this final suggestion:
The last time you purchased a home in Vancouver that you still own, what was your primary motivation:
a) to own my own home or as a primary residence (residence)
b) to rent it out to others for a increase in fixed income (investment)
c) to take advantage of the boom in housing prices and make money (speculation)
d) I do not own a home
We do need to define "Vancouver" in all these questions. Metro Vancouver is probably the best way to define it as i'm sure there are many people who, if they own mroe htan one home, some of their homes are not in Vancouver proper and this will allow us to intereview most people around here.
Cheers,
Edward
OH ON ANOTHER NOTE: If you guys don't really like my kind of survey we can follow Dren's suggestion. I don't think standing alone the question of whether foreign investors are affecting the housing market will tell us much; it will just give us a number. But if we also asked whether on a scale of 0-100, how much influence do corporate interests affect government policies, and what the likelihood of 9-11 being an inside job is on 0-100, how much censorship is there by powerful people in Western media on scale of 0-100 etc. we may be able to see that people think foreign investors affect the Vancouver housing market more/less than they believe that corporate interests affect government policy.