Course:EOSC311/2024/Are Electric Vehicles Truly Sustainable?

From UBC Wiki

By: Olivia Martiskainen

Introduction and Connection to my Major

Summary

Vehicles powered by internal combustion engines have become a major target of criticism for their harmful effects on humans and the environment. The electric vehicle (EV) has been heralded as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while allowing people to maintain the convenience and social status associated with a personal vehicle. However, there are also negative environmental and societal effects of EV manufacturing, in particular the manufacturing of EV batteries. There are also concerns that the supply of critical minerals for EV batteries will not keep up with increasing demand. This wiki page will explore some of the effects of EV manufacturing on the local and global economy and environment.

Statement of connection to my major

My major is in Economics. I chose the topic of EV sustainability because there is a lot of discussion surrounding EVs and whether they are "worth it." I wanted to take a deep dive into some of the costs and benefits of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles and evaluate the environmental and economic sustainability of EVs. I will also investigate factors influencing the supply and demand of EVs.

Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles

Greenhouse gases

An internal combustion engine (ICE) is a type of engine that burns fuel to produce heat energy and then converts the heat energy into mechanical energy. Fuel types include gasoline, diesel, and ethanol. These types of fuel are made of hydrocarbons and are produced by refining crude oil. One main environmental concern with ICEs is that when they burn hydrocarbons, greenhouse gases are produced. For example, the combustion of gasoline, which is primarily composed of hydrocarbons such as octane, involves a chemical reaction between octane and oxygen that produces carbon dioxide and water. The simplified chemical reaction can be represented as:

C8H18 + 12.5 O8 = 8 CO2 + 9 H2O [1]

Carbon dioxide is one of the most common greenhouse gases, a group of gases that absorb and radiate heat.[2] When in the atmosphere, greenhouse gases absorb heat radiating from the Earth's surface and reflect it back towards the Earth.[2] Carbon dioxide is the primary byproduct of gasoline combustion, but smaller amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which react with the atmosphere to produce nitrous oxide (N2O), are also produced. Methane and nitrous oxide are also greenhouse gases and are more potent than carbon dioxide when it comes to trapping heat in the atmosphere.[3][4] The combustion of gasoline in ICE cars contributes to the greenhouse gas effect, which drives global warming and climate change. There are currently estimated to be about 1.475 billion cars around the world, and emissions from light-duty vehicles were estimated to be contributing about 10% of the world's CO2 emissions in 2022.[5][6] Canada is a major producer of these emissions with the seventh-highest vehicle per capita count in the world.[5] As of 2023, Canada had 0.77 vehicles per person.[5]

Air pollution over city skyline in the distance
Air pollution over Denver, Colorado, USA

Air pollution

Another primary concern with ICE cars is their contribution to air pollution. This air pollution can contribute to smog, haze, and health problems.[7] The combustion of gasoline and diesel fuels releases various pollutants into the atmosphere, including particulates and heavy metals. Particulates, also known as particulate matter, are tiny particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs and even enter the bloodstream, causing respiratory and cardiovascular issues. Heavy metals, such as lead and mercury, can also be emitted, posing serious health risks to humans and wildlife. These heavy metals can accumulate in the soils and plants near roads.[8] This is a concern for agricultural land near roads. Incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon fuels can also produce carbon monoxide (CO), benzene, and formaldehyde.[9] All of these substances are harmful to humans.

A finite supply

Another potential drawback of the ICE is its reliance on fossil fuels, which are a finite resource. Fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas are formed from the remains of ancient plants and animals over millions of years. As we continue to extract and burn these fuels, the reserves are being depleted. This can drive up the cost of fuel and lead to increased geopolitical tensions over access to remaining resources. However, there are also new fossil fuel reserves discovered every year, and new resource extraction techniques such as fracking and oil sands exploitation are being used to widen the scope of which deposits are considered economically viable. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the supply and demand of oil over the coming decades. Currently, the Earth has proven oil reserves that should last another 47 years, with predicted demand levels. [10] However, this timeline does not account for the discovery of new oil reserves. We will have to keep drilling deeper to find more oil, so oil may become more difficult and expensive to produce. All of these factors make it difficult to estimate the long-term sustainability of an industry that relies upon a finite supply.

Electric Vehicles

History

The primary drawbacks of ICE-powered vehicles are their emissions of greenhouse gases, significant contribution to air pollution, and reliance on finite fossil fuel resources. An alternative type of vehicle is an electric vehicle (EV). The EV is not a new concept. The earliest EVs were designed in the 1830s, with models becoming commercially available around the 1890s.[11] By the turn of the century, EVs accounted for around a third of all vehicles on the roads, far more than the 1% of registered vehicles in the U.S. today.[11] [12] EVs were gradually pushed out of the market over the following decades due to the competitive pricing of Henry Ford's Model T, the invention of the electric starter, and cheaper and more accessible gasoline.[11]

Vintage advertisement for Columbia Electric Phaeton, 1901 model
Advertisement for Columbia Electric Phaeton, 1901 model
White Tesla Model 3
Tesla Model 3, 2017 model

The EV has made a resurgence in recent decades, with Honda and Toyota releasing hybrid vehicles in the late 1990s.[11] Increased awareness of global warming has made consumers willing to stomach higher prices in exchange for a reduction in their greenhouse gas emissions. This increased demand for low-emission vehicles spurred investments in research and development which have improved the range, charging speed, affordability, and reliability of EVs.[13] EVs now make up 6.5% of new vehicle sales in the U.S. [12]

Convenience

There are arguments to be made for and against EVs on the basis of convenience. In some ways, EVs are more convenient than traditional vehicles. Unlike a vehicle that requires fueling up at a gas station, all modern EVs can be charged at home with either a Level 1, standard 110-volt wall outlet or an easily retrofitted Level 2, 240-volt wall-mounted charger.[14] This means that when driving shorter distances, it is possible to charge your vehicle from home each night and not have to spend any time charging your vehicle during the day.

However, for longer distances, the convenience or lack thereof may depend on geography. An EV charging overnight with a Level 2 charger could gain a range of about 180 miles, but after that, the vehicle will need to be recharged before going any further.[14] Public EV charging infrastructure is still a fledgling system in many areas, as public chargers have only started being installed at scale in the last 10-15 years. In many locations, there are not enough chargers to meet demand. This can lead to inconvenient experiences such as waiting in line for a charger or being stranded on the side of the road with a dead battery.

Map of electric vehicle chargers in British Columbia, 2022
Map of electric vehicle chargers in British Columbia, 2022

Many governments are subsidizing the construction of new EV chargers to incentivize the purchase of EVs to meet lowered emissions targets. The British Columbia provincial government has included an additional $30 million in its 2024 budget to add 500 more chargers to British Columbia's charging network.[15] They will provide up to 50% of the cost of equipment and installation, and up to 90% of these costs for Indigenous-owned projects.[15] There are currently only about 5000 public chargers in British Columbia and this new funding underscores the need to provide equitable access to people in all areas of the province.[15] Convenience is an important factor when deciding what kind of personal vehicle to purchase. EVs may be seen as less convenient than ICE vehicles due to their limited range and underdeveloped charging infrastructure. This may discourage some consumers from switching to a greener form of transportation.

Environmental Advantages

The main draw of EVs is their lower environmental impact compared to an ICE vehicle. Hybrid-electric vehicles (vehicles that run on a combination of electricity and fossil fuels) produce lower tailpipe emissions than ICE-powered vehicles, and fully electric vehicles produce zero tailpipe emissions.[7] This means that vehicles running fully on electricity directly produce zero greenhouse gases and zero air pollution.[7] A transition to EVs could make a real impact on air quality and climate change across the globe. Emissions from cars and vans will need to be reduced by about 6% per year to be on track with a net-zero scenario by 2030.[6] One clear path to achieving this reduction is a switch to EVs.

Environmental Disadvantages

Emissions

Although fully electric vehicles produce no tailpipe emissions, the use of an EV does cause other types of emissions. Two additional components of cradle-to-grave emissions (emissions over the full lifetime of a vehicle) are important to highlight when comparing ICE vehicles and EVs: well-to-wheel emissions and emissions from EV battery manufacturing.

Well-to-wheel emissions

Well-to-wheel emissions include any emissions created while making and transporting the energy required to power a vehicle.[7] For ICE vehicles, this involves emissions caused by extracting, refining, transporting, and burning petroleum.[7] For EVs, well-to-wheel emissions are those produced from generating the electricity needed to charge the car's battery.[7] These emission levels will vary widely depending on the sources of electricity in the local area. Energy sources for power plants can range from very low-emission, such as wind, solar, or hydropower, to high-emission, such as natural gas or coal. For example, when comparing the two U.S. states of Wyoming and Washington, one can see that average annual emissions for an EV are about nine times as high in Wyoming as in Washington. This equates to about 5900 pounds of CO2 equivalent in Wyoming and about 650 pounds of CO2 equivalent in Washington.[7] This is because Wyoming's primary sources of electricity are fossil fuels and Washington's primary sources of electricity are low-emission. See a breakdown of each state's electricity sources in the table below, and British Columbia added for comparison.

Comparison of Electricity Sources and Electric Vehicle Well-to-Wheel Emissions by Region
Washington[7] Wyoming[7] British Columbia[16]
Electricity source Percent of total Electricity source Percent of total Electricity source Percent of total
Hydro 68% Coal 73% Hydro 88%
Natural Gas 12% Wind 22% Biomass or geothermal 5%
Nuclear 8% Natural Gas 2% Natural Gas 4%
Wind 8% Hydro 2% Wind 2.6%
Coal 3% Solar 0.5% Petroleum 0.5%
Other 1% Oil 0.1%
Annual emissions from EV Annual emissions from EV Annual emissions from EV
653 lbs CO2 equivalent 5906 lbs CO2 equivalent <650 lbs CO2 equivalent

It is important to note that driving a gasoline-powered vehicle creates annual emissions of around 1294 pounds of CO2 equivalent, which is almost twice as high as driving a fully electric vehicle in a region with relatively high-emission electricity production, such as Wyoming.[7] Even in regions with high-emission energy production, EVs have lower well-to-wheel emissions than gasoline-powered vehicles. However, EV well-to-wheel emissions do not equal zero, and calling EVs zero-emission vehicles is therefore misleading. Depending on your location, there are some marginal emissions associated with driving an EV.

Emissions from EV battery manufacturing

The well-to-wheel emissions are part of the marginal environmental cost of driving an EV. What is the fixed environmental cost of purchasing an EV? Vehicles are complex products that require materials from many different parts of the world and sophisticated manufacturing techniques. One aspect of an EV that differentiates it from a traditional fossil-fuel-powered vehicle when it comes to the environmental costs of manufacturing is the battery. EVs require a very strong battery which conventional vehicles do not require. EV batteries require critical minerals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium, which need to be mined and refined. These processes often carry a high emissions cost.

Two main battery types have been used in EVs since the early 2000s. Nickel-metal-hydride batteries are the traditional type of battery and are still used today in some vehicles, such as the 2023 Toyota Sienna Hybrid.[17] They are valued for their durability and affordability.[13] Lithium-ion batteries are a newer technology and were introduced around the early 2010s.[18] They have a higher energy density than nickel-metal-hydride batteries but are more expensive.[17] The rest of my environmental analysis will focus on the impacts of lithium-ion batteries, as they have a growing share of the EV market.

Pieces of grey, striated lithium metal
Lithium metal

Lithium-ion batteries contain lithium, as the name suggests. This is often in the form of a lithium-cobalt oxide.[19] Other battery types that include nickel, aluminum, or manganese are still in development and are too expensive for widespread commercial use.[19] The top 3 producers of lithium and cobalt are listed below.

Top Lithium Producers[20] Top Cobalt Producers[21]
1. Australia 1. Democratic Republic of Congo
2. Chile 2. Indonesia
3. China 3. Russia
Piece of shiny grey cobalt metal
Cobalt metal

Lithium mining can cause very high greenhouse gas emissions. Lithium mining can be done in one of two ways: by extraction from brine, which is the most common method in Chile, or by crushing solid rocks, which is a method that has been adopted in Australia. It is estimated that in hard rock mining, for every one tonne of mined lithium, 15 tonnes of CO2 is emitted.[22] For context, a lithium-ion EV battery can weigh anywhere from under half a tonne to just over one tonne and is not only lithium.[23] Another study puts the estimate at 11 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of lithium mined from brine and 37 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of lithium mined from spodumene ore, a pyroxene mineral.[24] One tonne of CO2 is the equivalent emissions of a gasoline-powered car driving 2500 miles.[22]

Cobalt can be mined through surface or underground mining.[25] Cobalt mining produces emissions at a similar rate to lithium mining. Annually, cobalt mining is estimated to produce 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent while lithium mining's annual emissions are about 1.3 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.[25]

The emissions estimates above do not consider the emissions released during the assembly of the battery, which needs to be done at very high temperatures. An estimated range for the CO2 emissions produced from manufacturing the 80 kWh lithium-ion battery in the Telsa Model 3 pictured above is 2.5 - 16 tonnes.[22]

Other environmental effects of EV battery manufacturing

An example of a surface mine similar to a cobalt mine

There are many environmental impacts other than greenhouse gas emissions that are related to EV battery manufacturing. Mining lithium from brine brings a high risk of contaminating the groundwater.[25] Cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to increased radioactivity levels as uranium in the rocks is exposed.[25] Mining both lithium and cobalt requires large amounts of water, which can strain local water systems or lead to drought, and cobalt mining in particular carries a risk of mineral leaching into the soils and water supply.[22] Surface mining for cobalt also requires clearing large areas of land, which can lead to deforestation. As with any type of mining, there are many environmental and human risks, and most cobalt and lithium mining is done in countries where the regulatory framework is too weak to reduce that risk to a level that would be found acceptable in the West.[26]

Social and economic factors

Effects on workers in EV supply chains

The poor worker conditions in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo have been extensively documented, and there are reports that conditions have deteriorated recently as mines have been bought by Chinese companies.[26] There are also reports of child labour and other human rights abuses.[21] This is due to the large unregulated artisanal mining sector, where individuals or small groups use basic tools to extract minerals.[26][27] There are also health impacts of cobalt mining, including respiratory issues from dust, exposure to toxic chemicals or gases, or accidental injury.[25]

One additional effect of child labour in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo is that children are not going to school. Children who have been exposed to cobalt mining complete about 0.25 fewer years of school than their peers in non-cobalt-mining villages.[28] These children are also more likely to experience difficulty focusing, walking, and understanding oral commands.[28] Cobalt mines that employ child labour will harm these children's educational attainment and future opportunities. However, artisanal mining is often the only work available and children are often needed to help support their families financially.[29]

Factors influencing consumer demand

EVs are more expensive to purchase than conventional vehicles. However, a Clean Energy Canada report released in 2022 states that over 8 years of car ownership driving an EV would save you $10,500 overall.[30] This is primarily because electricity is cheaper than gasoline. The cost to fully charge an EV ranged from $5.46 to $12.61 across the country.[30] This is much cheaper than a tank of gasoline. For consumers who can afford the higher sticker price of an EV, it is the superior financial choice.

Consumers interested in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions may be more motivated to purchase an EV. Although even fully electric vehicles are not zero-emission, the lifetime emissions associated with an EV are still lower than those associated with a gasoline-powered vehicle.[31] This is because although the emissions from manufacturing the vehicle may be higher, emissions from driving are much lower.[31]

Some Canadian consumers may hesitate to switch to an EV due to fears of their battery losing range in cold weather. A study by Seattle-based startup Recurrent found that in freezing temperatures between negative one and negative seven Celsius, EVs may lose up to 30% of their range.[32] This is because, while conventional vehicles heat the cabin by drawing excess heat from the engine, EVs do not produce excess heat and have to expend additional battery charge to heat the cabin in cold weather.[33] This may discourage Canadian consumers from investing in an EV, especially in northern regions or rural areas where public EV chargers are few and far between.

Factors influencing industry supply

The global EV market is currently valued at between USD 350 billion and USD 500 billion and is expected to grow by more than 100% by 2030.[34]

As the demand for battery minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel grows, there is concern that supply will not be able to keep up.[35] According to the International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook report, demand for lithium rose by 30% in 2023 and demand for cobalt and nickel rose by 8-15%.[36] The increase in supply of these minerals across Africa, Indonesia, and China over the past two years outpaced the increase in demand, resulting in falling prices.[36] However, there is also considerable difficulty projected in diversifying supply chains in the future.[36] It is difficult to predict, but a potential increase in mineral prices could make producing EVs prohibitively expensive and cause the supply of EVs to decrease.

Summary

Are electric vehicles truly sustainable?

EVs are more environmentally sustainable than gasoline-powered vehicles as they have lower lifetime greenhouse gas emissions. If you are a consumer looking for the most sustainable vehicle choice, an EV is the best option, especially if you are planning to use the vehicle for at least 5 years.

As an industry, EV manufacturing is sustainable for at least the short term. There are no shortages of critical minerals predicted to occur within the next decade. On a longer timeframe, it is difficult to predict how successful mineral exploration will be and whether sufficient mineral deposits will be discovered to support EV manufacturing. One method to increase the sustainability of the EV market is "closing the loop," which involves recycling EV batteries and other electrical components once the vehicle has reached the end of its life. This helps provide an alternate source of critical minerals that causes less negative environmental impacts. This work is already being done, especially with the recycling of nickel-metal-hydride batteries from earlier EV models which are now reaching the end of their useful lives.[37]

There are many concerns surrounding EV's impacts on workers and the environment, but overall they are a sustainable option. Consumers have a lot of power and should push for improved environmental and human rights regulation in EV supply chains. The connnections between economics and geology are numerous as geological resources have always been one of the main economic resources. The new industry of critical mineral mining for EV batteries underscores this relationship and the tension that can occur between protecting the environment and protecting one's profits.

References

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