Course:EOSC311/2023/How Canada's Oil & Gas Policies are a lot like the Ancient Roman God Janus: Understanding the Juxtaposing Policy around Canada’s Nationally Determined Contributions

Shale, Oil, and Kerogen

Project Summary

The discussion regarding climate change and climate restoration and preservation efforts are an increasingly more important and demanding topic in every diaspora. In Political Science —where systems are put in place, policies are created, and lobbying happen for change— even more so. Which is why the cross-section of geological processes and the information on fossil fuel resources is very critical moving forward. I thought a more in-depth examination of the Canadian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the fossil fuel industry would be helpful for future policy work as energy efficiency becomes increasingly political and economic.

Canadian climate policy has had the unique behaviour of not quite meeting or directly going against the outlined or desired policies the government outline. By explaining a specific part of Canadian climate policy, the Nationally Determined Contributions, this article hopes to contextualize the issue before diving into a geological perspective of fossil fuels and why the political aims and actions are often at odds with one another.

The goal of the page is to help the reader understand the intricacy and complexities of the struggle for a greener climate especially when industry is involved.

Sculpture of the Roman God Janus

The Two-Faced God Janus

In Roman Mythology, a King of Latium became a Roman God, one specifically relating to the transitions of life. This could be metaphorical beginnings and endings, or physical relating to passageways. The word Janus relates to the etymological Latin root for door.

Because of his double perspective, he is often depicted with two faces, one looking left and the other right. He is often used to compare the opposites of the same spectrum, like Peace and War or Joy and Sorrow.

So why is the Roman God Janus related to the Canadian Climate Change policies? Because Canadian Climate Change policy has recently been stuck speaking one way and acting another. Or, in the case of politics, speaking liberally, and acting conservatively.

"How Dare you Declare a Climate Emeregency when a Pipeline is Your Greatest Urgency?"

On June 17, 2019, the House of Commons passed the motion to declare Canada was in a national climate emergency. It should be noted that during the debate, the Conservative, NDP, and Liberal Party Leaders were not present. They were attending a Victory Parade for a Raptors Game. On June 18, 2019, less than 24 hours later, The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline was approved. A very metaphorical Janus move. The juxtaposition was not lost on scholars, the Canadian public, or global neighbours. The Canadian government seems to be embodying Janus in the ways of its’ contradictory behaviour.

Canada & Climate Change

The Paris Agreement

The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Paris in 2015 was a historic conference that led the conversation about globally tackling climate change and coordinating solutions at all levels and reaches. The conference focused on long term goals, hoping to guide global demand relating to carbon emissions down in hopes to also decrease the global temperature, or at the very least, delay its rise.

The Paris Agreement also bore the Nationally Determined Contributions, an ambitious strategy for countries to design their own ways to curb climate change in their societies.

And it's Challenges

Secretary Kerry's Remarks at Paris Agreement Event

While the Paris Agreement and the United Nations is an important faciliatory body with globalisation [the growing interconnectivity required by nations as technology and movement improves] it lacks a policing element and can occasionally come off as unsatisfactory for the steps that are wanting to be taken. the Paris Agreement is legally binding, however the ramifications of breaking it can be little more than sanctions. Prior to the Paris Agreement, countries struggled at navigating the actual implementation of strategies discussed at the conferences. Previous solutions to this dilemma have been inflating numbers for carbon statistics to appear 'nicer'.

Nationally Determined Contributions

What is it?

A The Nationally Determined Contributions is plan that each member who participated in the Paris Agreement in 2015, must create and submit to the United Nations, revising it every five years The goal of an NDC is to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts, how this happens is up to the country themselves. The plan however has to have achievable targets, elaborate systems that allow the progress and verification of its targets. A majority of countries created their NDC as a financing strategy.

While the plans are required to be revised every 5 years, many countries are calling to revise and adapt their plans every year. The ambitious energy is optimistic, but caution is required.

NDCs also have a unique ability to target multiple sectors and industries across a nation. Some countries have worked to facilitate youth and women's education along with diversity strategies into their NDCs.

Canada's 2021 NDC

Canada’s Nationally Determined Contributions for 2021, has the clear overarching goal of reduction. In regard to emissions, the United Nations Standards, the goal is to reduce emissions by 40-45% below the 2005 levels by 2030. This is a large ratification of the original agreement in 2016. Canada also has the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. The government of Canada created a plan by each province and territory, highlighting areas of work and change in some.

For the purpose of this article, the goals that are highlighted are

Canadian Coal Mine in Operation

• the shifting of Newfoundland and Labradors heating to primarily electric rather than coal based;

• funding oil sands and natural gas companies (onshore and offshore) for the purpose of reducing emissions and safety control;
• regulating methane emissions in Alberta as well as investing in clean technology sector within the area
• implementing tax measures and increasing subsidies

The challenges with the NDCs are that they are often equivalent to other government documents—vague and confusing—which destroys the purpose of the NDC as a document for all Canadians to grasp, understand, and finally, support. Many Canadians also had challenges understanding how increasing funding and tax breaks were going to support the reduction of carbon emissions in fossil fuel industries in Canada. A warranted frustration.

To Summarize Canada’s 2021 NDC is:

1. Net-Zero Emissions by 2050
2. 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030
3. Increase to 90% electricity from non-emitting sources in 2030
4. Increasing the expansion of research and development of other energy options
5. Funding and Investment in protection and safety for oil and natural gas companies across Canada

Canada's Resources: Fossil Fuels

What are Fossil Fuels?

It is a common conception that burning fossil fuels is bad, but rarely is it understood why. Fossils fuels are linked to global warming through multiple levels. The first link was the creation of the Keeling Curve in 1956, which tracked the rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere, which corresponded to the increased usage of fossil fuels. CO2 is connected to fossil fuels because fossil fuel is created from organic material, particularly plankton and algae that resided in an ocean.

If you are not familiar, both photosynthesize and create their own energy, consuming carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen. However, when the organic materials die and are buried under layers of sediment or reaching pockets of the ocean that had no oxygen, they are prevented from decaying, halting a cycle where they release carbon dioxide.

First Oil Well in Western Canada

How are they Made?

Through burial, temperature, pressure changes, and time, the material becomes kerogen. If that process is increased and repeated, the kerogen becomes a highly carbonized material. Which material depends on the formation of the bonds. The material formed can be oil, gas, or peat. This sweet spot of temperature and pressure, is where the material becomes gas and/or oil. Every step involves however, lengthy pockets of time. The release of fossil fuels is then the release of carbon dioxide of the materials previously buried.

While a highly simplified explanation, the transfer of energy is why there is an increase of CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Such levels increase global warming, resulting in tipping the earth away from a natural temperature equilibrium. The increasing levels can result in an increase in natural disasters and catastrophic agricultural and humanitarian damages.

Oil versus Gas?

Fossil Fuels can be comprised of two things: Oil or Gas.

Oil can also be referred to as petroleum or crude oil. Oil extraction, refinement, and transportation is linked with rising emissions and natural disturbances, an example being spills.

Natural Gas can be classified two ways, Wet or Dry. Wet gas is valuable for its presence of other materials like ethane or butane—natural gas liquids (NGLs)— that can be extracted and used separately from the natural gas. Dry natural gas is what is often used in electricity and heating. Gas also requires heavy extraction and refinement processes so that the gas may be 'Pipeline Quality' Dry Natural Gas. Natural gas is often referred to as a cleaner fuel by many. While it is true natural gas emits less carbon than coal and oil, it emits more methane and other hazardous air pollutants like nitrogen oxides, causing what is known as smog.

Geography of Petroleum Resources

Oil and Gas, however, need to have certain environmental factors for oil and gas to collect in a reservoir, and eventually be extracted. The source rock, oftentimes mudstone or shale, contains the kerogen. The reservoir rock—porous and permeable—often sandstone or limestone, holds the oil and gas. The oil and gas would continue moving if not for the cap stone or cap rock, an example being clay. This rock seals and wedges the reservoir as it is impermeable. however, they can get caught in 'traps' like folds or faults in sedimentary layers.

Athabasca Oil Sands in Alberta

Canadian Geography

Because fossil fuels are comprised of a specific kind of organic material, they are not abundant across the globe. Oftentimes the organic material rests in sedimentary basins, dried up oceans that have shifted over millions of years.

Canada has approximately 7 major sedimentary basins. The primary basin, and primary focus of the article, is the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. It extends across Manitoba and continues until reaching Northern British Columbia. Canada has the third largest oil reserves in the world, around 178 billion barrels in proven reserves. Alberta sits on proportionally on the largest oil reserves, approximately 95% of Canada’s total oil sand reserves. What makes Alberta stand out however, is that the oil sands are water-wet.

Water-wet oil sands refer to the fact that the bitumen and the solids within the deposit are layered with water, not oil. This means that Alberta can recover deposits through water-based gravity separation. Whereas most oil sands that are oil wet, require solvents, chemicals, and other extensive extraction strategies.

The Politics of Fuel

With more media coverage, academic material, and figures like Greta Thunberg becoming more prevalent, climate change has become a staple within the media and small talk conversations. However, the desires of the people often do not reflect the reality of GDP. The energy industry equating to 10% of Canada's GDP (stat). Canada, given its NDC commitments and declaration of a national climate emergency, it is surprising the amount of nonreusable energy production coming from Canada. The table below illustrates Canada's proportional energy production in 2017 versus 2020. Not only has it grown since 2017, but other energy options are also in decline! Such figures are in great conflict with the goals outlined by the 2021 NDCs.

Energy Production of Non-Renewables in Canada 2017 / 2020

Year	Natural Gas	Crude Oil	Uranium
2017	24.1%	32.4%	29.0%
2020	28%	44%	10%

When looking at these numbers and the commitments Canada made on its NDC, it is helpful to be reminded that Canada in some respects is simply responding to demand. The energy industry, specifically oil and gas supports and arguably are pillars of the modern world. Very few commercial industries do not require some element of fossil fuels. Namely, the production of plastics, energy in transportation and manufacturing are key requirements in current Northwestern society.

Two Faced Challenges

As We have discussed above, demand, economics, and global influence plays a large role in the political agenda of the Government. Justin Trudeau's government has faced backlash and challenges regarding some moves, particular an increase in oil subsidies.

In some ways Canada was too aggressive with its 2021 NDC. While optimism is important when gauging long term goals, outright delusion is not. Outlining goals for electric heating is achievable, massive 20% reductions in carbon emissions without support, is not. When considering the international constraints, the international demand, the monetary challenges, petroleum-based products are still required within Canada. Noting the geopolitical climate of Europe right now regarding Ukraine and Russia, this puts massive constraints on energy supplies and support for carbon reductions.

Something else to note, is that similar to previous climate conference strategies for reducing carbon emissions, often the goal is overshadowed by inter-politics of the conferences. Similarly, to kids at a playground when someone jumps from the swings, why shouldn't others? If countries do not follow through with their NDC, and are economically benefiting from it, what is the point of other countries committing while damaging their economy? If this style of thinking continues, the fight for climate justice is lost.

Canada also faces challenges when confronted by the fact a portion of the country is dependent on jobs that stem from the fossil fuel industry. In 2020 all employment related to the fossil fuel industry in Alberta alone accounted for 6% of the population, with an expected 12% growth in 2021. However, if Canada is able to shift companies to renewable energy sources, certain jobs can be re-found.

A key takeaway when acknowledging fossil fuels, is the carbon cycle involved. Carbon emissions happen. However, the disparity between carbon emission and it's consumption resulting in oxygen output is high. Oftentimes Industries forget that reduction also has elements of protection. Protection of marine plankton and wildlife like trees that supply oxygen into the atmosphere are important factors in curbing carbon emissions.

Conclusion + Connections

Conclusion

Canada has some decisions to make. Given the natural resources the country is enriched with, and the where global demand is, the country struggles to meet its opportunistic goals of climate prevention and justice, while also juggling the economic support the non-renewable energy industry currently provides.

It is important to move forward with emission reduction strategies, funding in renewable energy, along with research and development into ways Canada can pivot its uses of oil and gas. Strategies like the 2021 NDC are helpful for bringing the global community together, shifting demand trends and energy needs. They should however be achievable in and realistic with the economic and geopolitical framework Canada is working in.

"Kids Are Growing, So is Climate Change, Act Now" Sign at a Climate Protest

Connections

Climate Change has unfortunately become a cloud of doom over a large population of the world. It is important, when complex challenges feel overwhelming to discuss all the elements at place with a large number of people. By grasping the earths carbon cycle and its connection to fossil fuel more Canadians may hope to get involved in research or actionable prevention strategies. Taking courses such as this, that discuss Canadian resources, helps professionals find ways to support greater ethical and efficient solutions to cross-over in their own industries.

To find solutions, policy analysts and those advocating for Canadians need to understand how fossil fuels impact Canada and the people living here, which involves collaborating with the geologists and environmental analysts in the area.

The climate crisis is an interdisciplinary challenge that requires creatives, analysts, strategists, and communicators to approach the complex challenges ahead as Canada looks to reduce its carbon emissions to zero.

Reference

This Earth Science resource was created by Course:EOSC311.