Course:ECON371/UBCO2010WT1/GROUP4/Article 8: Recession clipped CO2 emissions slightly
Article 8: Recession clipped CO2 emissions slightly
Summary
The recent recession, caused by the world financial crisis that began in 2008, has shown to reflect a dip in greenhouse gas emissions over the following year. However, this decrease did not amount to the original calculation that predicted a drop of more than half of the amount that has actually occurred. The last century has shown an increase in CO2 levels, and linked this increase to the developing nations of the world.
Scientists believe that this increase in emissions has a close correlation to economic growth, and with the world economy going through a recession, the impact was thought to show a downward trend. The amount of this decrease however was difficult to predict. The Global Carbon Project reported a decrease of 1.3 percent, this number is said to have been much smaller than their previously expected number of 2.8 percent.
This difference came about because the International Monetary fund (IMF) had overestimated the effect that the global financial crisis would have on global GDP. Another point is that the financial crisis did not have an equal effect on countries throughout the world. CO2 emissions fell in North America, Europe and Japan, yet rose substantially in countries like China and India.
With the IMF’s projection for global GDP to increase by 4.8 percent in 2010, the result is thought to show an increase in global emissions by roughly 3 percent over this year.
One point that has shown to overcompensate for the actual increase in carbon dioxide emissions is the active regrowth of forested areas in the temperate climates. There is said to be an increase of the planting of new trees, and that number of new trees planted per year is larger than that of the trees that are being cut down. Those in the scientific community are saying that world emissions resulting from deforestation, are now showing to be lower today that they were throughout the 1990s. Satellite imagery is showing that the recent reduction in land use emissions is consistent with the slowing of deforestation in areas of the Amazon and in Indonesia.
Analysis
Relationship of Vehicle Emissions and CO2 Emissions
Vehicle emissions are not only related to those that come directly from the tailpipe of vehicles. Fossil fuels are required for the use of combustion engine vehicles and thus their emissions can be directly or indirectly related to the total fossil fuel emissions experienced throughout the world economy.
The recent financial crisis has again brought about some interesting information when relating global CO2 emissions and global GDP. As GDP falls, as it does during an economic downturn or recessionary period, their seems to be a direct resulting fall in the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses that are introduced into the atmosphere.
This fall in emissions is not the same however when you look closer at the emissions released by each country and their economy. This is most likely a direct result of how a country's GDP was affected by the recent global financial crisis. Some countries were not affected as much as others, and thus their emissions levels did not change as much as those where GDP experienced a larger blow. This however is not the only criteria involved in these swings in global emissions. For example, China is now a huge consumer of fossil fuels and is becoming more and more dependent on the internal combustion engine due to a wide move to cars as a mode of transportation. The effect from this is a prominent increase to global emissions, while those in some of the other developed countries are experiencing a recessionary dip in emissions due to a number of factors affecting each country's GDP.
Conclusion
The article points out a direct link between falling emissions and recessionary trends. Although this dip during recessions is a good thing on an environmental side, it is no doubt a temporary one. The elasticity of the market will rebound and so with it will the emissions. When the economy is in a expansion and recovery part of the business cycle, the affect that comes with it is an increase in the use of fossil fuels. These fuels are what we use to run most of the economy unfortunately. When the economy is going through the contraction and recession part of the business cycle, cut backs are made and less CO2 emissions are a resulting factor. In what seems to be a world economy that is only interested in moving forward, in terms of population and consumption of resources, incorporating cleaner energy sources and moving away from the burning of fossil fuels is the only action that will have a dramatic enough effect on the continuous rise of CO2 emissions. It is interesting though to see how directly connected our GDP and CO2 emissions are, we just need to find a way to reduce our emissions in a way that will still allow for economic growth.
Prof's Comments
Interesting article. Could have linked with some of the stuff in class about the different paths to emissions reduction - population, income per capita, emissions per unit of income, etc. Also, a little more use of terms like inward shift in demand, etc. would have been good.