Course:ECON371/UBCO2009WT1/GROUP2/Article7
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Article Summary
A new study released by UBC suggests that the poorest regions of the world, tropical developing nations, may face famine and food shortages due to climate change. The warming of the world's oceans means that fish, which are not very temperature tolerant, will move away from warming waters in seek of cooler ones. This displacement will move fish stocks away from poor tropical regions into colder northern or southern waters. This is a major problem as subsistence fishing is a major source of food in the developing world.
Background
From ancient times, fishing has been a major source of food for humanity and a provider of employment and economic benefits to those engaged in this activity. However, with increased knowledge and the dynamic development of fisheries, it was realized that living aquatic resources, although renewable, are not infinite and need to be properly managed, if their contribution to the nutritional, economic and social well-being of the growing world's population is to be sustained. In recent years, world fisheries have become a dynamically developing sector of the food industry, and many States have striven to take advantage of their new opportunities by investing in modern fishing fleets and processing factories in response to growing international demand for fish and fishery products. It became clear, however, that many fisheries resources could not sustain an often uncontrolled increase of exploitation.
Why Care about Fish?
Provides 15% of the average per capita animal protein intake for 3 billion people
• West Africa: over 30% of average daily animal protein consumption in the region (Neiland, 2006)
• Most dependent countries (Anon 2000): – 46% Senegal, – 62% Gambia, – 63% Sierra Leone and Ghana
520 million people depend on the fisheries and aquaculture sectors for their livelihoods, 30-45 million in Africa • West Africa:
– Fish exports contribute on average 27.8% to total agricultural exports (Neiland, 2006)
– Women dominate processing, retailing and local trading
According to the news, climate change affects food supplies offshore and warns of severe declines in fish stocks in some of the world's poorest regions. How could the world’s fishery have reached such a state？ Two views suggest that the present situation is almost an inevitable outcome of two competing factors: 1, the world’s overcapacity to fish. 2, the resource depletion of marine stock.
Environment threats is one of the most important reason. Fish numbers can be affected by a range of environment effects, principally, pollution, habitat destruction, and global warming. It is perhaps hardly surprising to read that marine ecosystems are under increasing threat from the damage that development can cause coastal fish environment and the discharge of human and industrial waste.
Climate change will have a greater impact on the health of the world’s fisheries than over fishing itself. Faced with the mounting evidence that the world’s fisheries are unsustainable, it is important that people consider what options we have for changing the present situation.
Because fish will tend to migrate away from warmer waters surrounding poor, non developed nations such as Indonesia and Mauritius, and towards colder waters found in areas of technologically advanced developed national fishing territory, this shift in migrated location could not only affect poor nations in the short run, but global fisheries in the long run. If these fish are entering areas of water where fishing takes place at large scale netting and baiting, sonar location and navigation, their populous could easily dwindle exponentially more rapid than in methods used in poor nations. This outcome is especially plausible if it is entertained that government limits of fisheries and catch amounts could increase the false understanding of sustainable fish population due to the short term increase of population added by the migration. With lack of research by government in sufficient sustainability levels, lack of knowledge of habitant local species, and the general greed found in these "sanctioned" government protectional forecast provided in previous articles should suffice to the plausibility and even likeliness of such a mistake occurring.
The Global Effects of Worldwide Apathy regarding Climate Change
This article shows yet more effects that will/could result from Climate Change. It touches on several subjects covered in the Environmental Economics course. The first is that of Public Costs versus Private Costs. Many of the choices our society makes that are detrimental spring from our inability to properly understand the effects/costs of our actions. It is not immediately apparent that a choice to drive solo to work every day for 40 years directly leads to increased starvation in tropical areas. While the public sees their Car payment and Gas/repairs as immediate costs, they don't factor in the exhaust and emissions that contribute to Greenhouse Gases as it is far removed and the effects are minuscule. It is like Game Theory writ large upon the world. Why would a consumer switch to an electric small car just so their neighbor can drive a Hummer with no net change? It is impossible to get all of the public to commit to changes, so many people won't even try.
This attitude leads directly to Freeriding. This article states that countries that are far north or south could actually benefit from the displacement of fish stocks, which would contribute to the decrease in Willingness To Pay for countries in that zone. There is even less incentive for these countries to combat climate change, making them much more likely to freeride, while the tropical countries that will bear the brunt of sea level rises and fish stock depletion have a much higher WTP and will take action sooner. It has actually been discussed that Northern Hemisphere countries like Canada and Russia will benefit greatly from a warming world, with marginal lands becoming more fertile and the habitable zone moving north. This means there may be a large difference in WTP for climate change issues in the future.
When fisheries are faced with a net loss in sustainability, such as that listed above, it is difficult for regulation to occur for a multitude of reasons. In relevant circumstances particular to this scenario, it is difficult to account this migration as a diminishing populous given the facts, but with understanding of the government and individual practices of fishing, it can be revealed as so. Further more, without provided incentive and a forceful and equipped regulative body, benefitting countries such as Canada have no incentive to counter such a problem of net loss. Also it is difficult for these issues to be made public and brought to a global realization because the effects are bared heavily by non developed nations, with a lack of world voice.
Prof's Comments
Free riding writ large. Good point. It will be interesting to see how northern nations respond to the increase in the productivity of their fisheries, as fish populations and marine ecological zones move.