forum 5: week of 6 Feb. Hawthorne and lotteries
It seems to me that the reason we are so hesitant to admit that we know we will not win the lottery is that we are putting effort into the process. Our goal in buying a lottery ticket is to win, so we refuse to admit defeat by claiming that we know we will lose. This contrasts with the case of the African safari because in that case we are not making an effort to save up money or find a higher paying job. I think if someone played the lottery daily, with the goal of going on an African safari in mind, they would not say that they knew they would not go on an African safari.