Communicating Science/Communicating Uncertainty/Quick Quiz

Communicating Uncertainty Quick Quiz

1) Read the following summary of some research in which you must communicate the degree of uncertainty in your results.

We have assessed the risk of a serious volcanic eruption affecting people living in the nearest town and believe there is a 1 in 151,091 chance that such an eruption will occur in the next week, a 1 in 106 chance in the next 10 years and is a 1 in 12 chance that it will happen in the next 50 years.

a) Decide whether you can simplify the three numbers without affecting their accuracy too much, to make this easier for people to interpret, and then make these simplifications if you think it is possible to do so (1 mark for each decision, 3 marks total).

b) Read the following descriptions of the risk facing town residents, and rank these in order from best to worst, remembering the importance of avoiding framing bias (4 marks):

A: Realistically, there is no chance that the volcano will erupt in the next week.

B: It is a bit more likely that the volcano will erupt by 2065 than by 2025.

C: It is very unlikely that the volcano will erupt in the next 50 years.

D: There is an absolutely tiny chance that the volcano will erupt in the next week.

2) Read the three short descriptions below that all deal with scientific uncertainty in some way. Try to suggest what the potential problems are with each one and then re-write them to remove these problems (3 marks).

i) If the pest outbreak spreads to the city, there is a 1.3% chance that all the maple trees will die. Scientists think there is approximately a 14% chance that it will reach the city.
ii) Statistics show that cyclists involved in traffic accidents have a 45% chance of missing at least two weeks of work to recover from injuries. Car drivers have only a 15% chance, but on average they are involved in six times as many accidents.
iii) Every single one of our 150 test subjects improved their performance in biology exams following our instructional course, so there is no chance that you would pay for it and not see an improved result at the end of term.